Raw material prices remain firm; under cost pressure, dichloromethane continues to rally.

1. Today's Summary

① On October 7, communication channels for US-Iran negotiations remained open, and the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes persisted, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures (November contract) closed at $88.28/bbl, down $1.16/bbl (-1.30% WoW); ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) closed at $100.20/bbl, down $0.38/bbl (-0.38% WoW). China INE crude oil futures were suspended due to the National Day holiday.

② On October 8, domestic liquid chlorine prices rose to 300 yuan/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Taking the Shandong region as the benchmark, dichloromethane in Shandong closed today at 2,950 yuan/ton (range: 2,930–2,970 yuan/ton), up from the previous trading day. The upward trend in the domestic dichloromethane market continued, with overall operating rates declining to around 60%. Some enterprises still have low inventory pressure. Coupled with rising prices for raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine, methane chlorination enterprises face significant cost pressures, primarily raising their offer prices. This has shifted the market center upwards. Downstream buyers are making moderate purchases, resulting in acceptable trading activity.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for methane chlorination products stood at 61.01%, down from the previous trading day. Regarding costs and profits, upstream raw material prices for liquid chlorine and methanol rose today, increasing the theoretical cost for methane chlorination products. Based on externally sourced liquid chlorine calculations, the daily profit margin for methane chlorination products was -99 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine both saw price increases, placing significant cost pressure on methane chlorination enterprises. Additionally, industry-wide operating rates remain at low levels, and some enterprises have manageable inventory pressure. Consequently, dichloromethane prices are expected to continue rising. Attention should be paid to subsequent news developments.

5. Related Product Status

Refrigerant Market: Taking the bulk water market in East China as the benchmark, mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 factories maintained high prices by controlling supply volumes to support pricing. As of press time, major factories in East China quoted reference prices at 65,500 yuan/ton (combined domestic and export quotes); mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from 63,500 to 64,500 yuan/ton, aligning with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that inquiries in channel markets for bulk sales have been passively sluggish. Factories are prioritizing fixed supply guarantees to main original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Recently, quarterly long-term agreement negotiations among major commercial traders have intensified, awaiting finalization of actual orders. Small-package shipment frequency remains slow; therefore, source factories are strictly controlling incremental spot supplies. Statistics show that the industry-wide operating load for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 is maintaining near 40%. Recently, factory production scheduling and consumption forces have contracted further, and export volumes have declined. Amidst the high-level sideways movement of R32 prices, channel holders are seeking opportunities to offload inventory. Buyers have little interest in purchasing high-cost inventory, waiting instead for clear quote signals from major factories. Chempricehub predicts that short-term strategies for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 will focus on volume control to maintain prices, with commercial negotiations settling contract prices while monitoring industry unit dynamics and production scheduling rhythms.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Methane Chlorination Products Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)