According to data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC), China’s sulfur imports in September 2026 totaled approximately 140,700 tons, representing a month-on-month decrease of 48.33% and a year-on-year decline of 82.26%. Cumulative imports for the third quarter amounted to roughly 798,400 tons, down sharply by 70.05% year-on-year. Total imports for January through September reached approximately 3.0593 million tons, a year-on-year reduction of 61.81%. Compared to the 59.56% year-on-year drop recorded for the first eight months, this indicates that the contraction has further intensified. The underlying dynamics have undergone fundamental changes as reflected in the data through September. Based on currently available information regarding October import shipping schedules, unless there is an explosive surge in volumes during November and December, China’s total annual sulfur imports will not only fail to reach 5 million tons but may also struggle to surpass the 4 million ton threshold.
In terms of trade partners for the first three quarters of 2026, South Korea, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ranked first, second, and third respectively, with import volumes of 668,300 tons, 471,700 tons, and 463,500 tons. This ranking differs slightly from the cumulative top-three positions seen in previous months. Data-wise, South Korea has reclaimed the top spot, widening the gap with second-place Oman to 196,600 tons and with third-place UAE to 204,800 tons. This scenario contrasts significantly with data from the same period or related months in 2022. By comparison, the differences among Oman, the UAE, and fourth-ranked Canada are relatively small. Once fourth-quarter data is released, their rankings and volumes remain subject to uncertainty.
The significant decline in China’s cumulative sulfur imports from January to September this year is closely linked to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which remains a central factor. GAC data shows that overall arrivals of sulfur from the Middle East during this period also contracted markedly. Exports to China from six traditional suppliers—Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia—all declined year-on-year. Specifically, Qatar dropped by 95.90%, Kuwait by 85.37%, Iran by 84.25%, Oman by 56.55%, the UAE by 55.59%, and Saudi Arabia by 53.37%. The simultaneous reduction in supply from these traditional sources has weakened the role of Middle Eastern cargo in supplementing the domestic market. Key reasons include:
Looking ahead, USD-denominated resource prices are expected to trend downward. However, the domestic spot market remains dominated by sentiment-driven behavior, where buyers tend to purchase when prices rise rather than fall. With limited supportive factors, the market faces considerable pressure. Against this backdrop, domestic industry players’ enthusiasm for purchasing USD-denominated resources has plummeted to freezing levels. Consequently, monthly sulfur import volumes in the fourth quarter are highly likely to maintain a cliff-like year-on-year contraction.
Based on currently known shipping schedule data, China’s sulfur imports in October are projected to range between 250,000 and 300,000 tons, resulting in a substantial year-on-year decline in monthly comparisons. Under the continued influence of policies prioritizing targeted supply guarantees from domestic production and restricting exports of phosphate fertilizers and sulfuric acid, the likelihood of improved demand-side conditions in November and December remains low. Additionally, some enterprises typically reduce their open positions toward the end of the year due to habitual practices. Therefore, it is projected that China’s total annual sulfur imports will definitively fall short of the 5 million ton mark, and even reaching the 4 million ton threshold poses a significant challenge.
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