Downtrend in the Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP) Market (October 2026)

1. Key Focus Areas This Month

1. Weak demand in the autumn fertilizer market has led to inventory pressure for manufacturers and suppliers, with raw material prices gradually declining and the overall market center continuing to drop.
2. Compound fertilizer plants are operating at low rates, primarily focusing on clearing finished product inventories, resulting in limited enthusiasm for replenishing raw materials.
3. Driven by lower costs, sufficient supply, and weak demand, the diammonium phosphate (DAP) market is trending downward.

2. Monthly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Monthly Price Change Table for Domestic Ammonium Phosphate Market Prices
Unit: CNY/ton, USD/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

In October, the domestic monoammonium phosphate (MAP) market continued to weaken, with cumulative monthly price declines of approximately 250 CNY/ton. The mainstream ex-works delivered price for 55% powder MAP in Hubei fell to 3,550–3,600 CNY/ton. Low-priced supplies from small factories and traders remained available in the market, while major producers maintained a floor policy of 3,850 CNY/ton. During the first half of the month, the market center continued to shift downward, with quotes remaining chaotic. Ex-works quotes for 55% powder in Hubei hovered around 3,700–3,800 CNY/ton, with actual transactions negotiated case-by-case. Terminal demand for autumn fertilizers was limited, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises faced sluggish sales of finished products, and previous raw material stocks were sufficient. Coupled with high factory and social inventories and the continuous release of low-priced supplies, downstream willingness to replenish was low. In mid-month, low-end prices continued to probe downward. Major producers' floor policies stood at 3,850 CNY/ton for 55% powder and 4,100 CNY/ton for 58% powder ex-works, while quotes from small factories and traders dropped to around 3,600–3,650 CNY/ton, with limited transaction volume. Wheat fertilizer applications in North China were winding down, compound fertilizer operating rates continued to decline, and most enterprises had ample raw material inventories with low enthusiasm for new orders. Additionally, regional environmental inspections caused a significant reduction in operating loads for MAP producers. In late October, the market remained weak, and the price center continued to drop, showing a divergent pattern where major producers held firm on floor prices while small factories and traders offered flexible quotes. Follow-up on new orders was乏力 (lackluster), leading to increased production cuts and plant shutdowns. Industry capacity utilization fell below 35%, and inventory pressure remained unresolved. Raw material sulfur prices retreated to within 5,000 CNY/ton, further dampening market sentiment. Winter stockpiling has not yet begun, placing the market in a demand gap period characterized by strong "buy on rise, avoid on fall" sentiment, causing the transaction center to continue shifting downward. Pressured by shipping difficulties, ex-works prices in Hubei continued to fall despite low downstream acceptance; small factories and traders continuously offered discounts to secure orders, pushing low-end supplies to around 3,550 CNY/ton, with actual transactions primarily based on individual negotiations.

In October, the domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) market exhibited a weak downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the overall market performance was soft. Although enterprise quote adjustments were limited, maintaining Hubei region 64% ex-works prices at 4,800–4,850 CNY/ton, actual orders remained subject to negotiation. However, grassroots demand released slowly, keeping market sentiment under pressure. Some traders chose to dump inventory at low prices to accelerate shipments, thereby pulling down the overall transaction center. Pessimistic sentiment spread persistently, creating obvious disparities between high and low market prices, with significant declines in industrial channels. By mid-month, raw material prices fluctuated and retreated, weakening cost support. Some enterprises offered price concessions to facilitate transactions, with mainstream 64% ex-works prices in Hubei ranging from 4,700–4,850 CNY/ton, while actual orders remained negotiable. Autumn fertilizer applications entered their final stage, bearish sentiment intensified, low-priced supplies emerged successively, and the bargaining center continued to shift downward, though new order transactions remained limited. As soil moisture conditions gradually improved, grassroots procurement began to resume. Entering late October, raw material prices continued to fall significantly, further exacerbating market psychological pressure as enterprises focused on executing pending orders and shifted sales priorities toward the winter stockpiling market. Bearish sentiment continued to ferment, and low-priced supplies persisted. Current goods were mainly concentrated in grassroots distribution stages, with low downstream restocking enthusiasm, maintaining only minimal on-demand replenishment. Approaching the end of the month, demand in the autumn fertilizer market had not completely ceased, but grassroots distribution was in its closing phase. New order transactions were sporadic; due to sufficient supply, low prices remained in the market, and the price center for 57% grade continued to decline.

2. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. The domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate this month was 29.85%, a decrease of 4.24 percentage points month-on-month, but an increase of 1.67 percentage points year-on-year.
2. The MAP market's downtrend is difficult to stop; the DAP market is trending weakly downward.
3. This month, the gross margin for MAP was -1,494 CNY/ton, an increase of 157 CNY/ton month-on-month; the gross margin for DAP was -1,103 CNY/ton, an increase of 502 CNY/ton month-on-month.

3. Next Month Market Forecast

Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): The MAP market is expected to maintain a weak downward trend next period. Raw material prices will remain volatile, with weakening cost support. On the supply side, increased maintenance and shutdowns will lead to continued production reductions. Winter stockpiling is starting slowly, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm for raw materials, maintaining only essential rigid demand purchases. Furthermore, inventories remain at high levels. Overall, mainstream ex-works prices for 55% powder MAP in Hubei are estimated to be 3,450–3,550 CNY/ton in November.

Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): The domestic DAP market is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend next period. Raw material prices still have room to probe downward, with cost factors disturbing market sentiment. The likelihood of early initiation of winter fertilizer stockpiling is low, creating a demand gap. Overall market psychology is likely dominated by bearish sentiment, and the price center may continue to shift downward. Key attention should be paid to changes in policy. On the supply side, given weak demand, there are expectations for further reductions in enterprise operating loads. The average spot ex-works price for 64% DAP in Hubei is projected to be around 4,700–4,800 CNY/ton in November.

For more monthly market analyses, please refer to the Chempricehub Ammonium Phosphate Monthly Report.