Shift in Procurement Models Leads to Sustained Recovery in the Aluminum Fluoride Market (September 2026)

1. Key Focus Points This Month

1. Production: The capacity utilization rate for aluminum fluoride plants in September was 32.5%, a month-on-month decline of 13.1 percentage points. This decrease was primarily driven by annual maintenance shutdowns at certain facilities in northern China and scheduled rotating line inspections at some enterprises. Additionally, under cost pressures, several companies proactively reduced their production loads. These combined factors led to a contraction in on-site supply and a downward trend in the industry's operating levels.

2. Tender Prices: In August, Chinalco’s aluminum fluoride tender reference price was 11,800 RMB/ton. Shandong Weiqiao’s aluminum fluoride tender reference price was 11,400–11,500 RMB/ton, while Yunnan Weiqiao’s aluminum fluoride tender reference price was reported as 11,800 RMB/ton. (Note: The original text stated "118000" for Yunnan Weiqiao, which is likely a typo for 11,800 given market context; translated as 11,800 for professional accuracy).

2. Monthly Market Analysis

   Figure 1: Monthly Price Trend Chart of Aluminum Fluoride in North China Market (2023-2026) (RMB/ton)
   Data Source: Chempricehub Information

    

   Figure 2: Monthly Price Trend Chart of Aluminum Fluoride in Northwest China Market (2023-2026) (RMB/ton)
   Data Source: Chempricehub Information

    

   Figure 3: Monthly Price Trend Chart of Aluminum Fluoride in Southwest China Market (2023-2026) (RMB/ton)
   Data Source: Chempricehub Information

    

Table 1: Monthly Comparison of Aluminum Fluoride Prices (RMB/ton)

Referencing the East China market, the domestic aluminum fluoride market continued its recovery in September. The weighted average transaction price rose to 11,450 RMB/ton this month, an increase of 1.78%. A review of the current period is as follows: On the cost side, fluorspar supply was tight with transaction prices continuing to rise; aluminum hydroxide supply was abundant, leading to a continued decline in its price; sulfuric acid demand was weak, causing prices to retreat from high levels. Affected by mixed bullish and bearish factors among upstream raw materials, the comprehensive cost of aluminum fluoride increased overall, with cost pressure persistently transmitting downstream. On the supply side, production enterprises have been operating at a loss for an extended period. Annual maintenance shutdowns at some northern facilities, combined with proactive reductions in operating loads due to cost pressures, tightened on-site supply, causing the industry operating rate to fall to 32.5%. On the demand side, domestic electrolytic aluminum demand remained stable, while overseas quarterly orders for electrolytic aluminum were concentratedly delivered this month. Furthermore, adjustments in tender models and changes in spot negotiation mechanisms provided upstream enterprises with room for profit recovery, improving market trading sentiment. Overall, supported by the cost side, domestic aluminum fluoride prices are expected to continue rising in October.

3. Key Factor Analysis

Cost Aspect

Sulfuric Acid: In September, the Chinese sulfuric acid market failed to exhibit the typical "Golden September" peak season activity, with supply-demand contradictions prevailing throughout the month. The average price of 98% sulfuric acid nationwide dropped from 1,600 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 1,232 RMB/ton at the end of the month, averaging 1,397 RMB/ton, a decrease of 312 RMB/ton or 18.26% compared to the previous month. At the start of the month, the market continued the cooling trend from late August, with sluggish trading activity. Supply-side plant operations were stable, but inventory accumulated at some enterprises. On the demand side, fertilizer and chemical enterprises mostly maintained rigid procurement needs with strong wait-and-see attitudes. Lacking sufficient bullish support, acid prices were adjusted downwards in Central, East, South, and Northwest China. By mid-month, maintenance-repaired units gradually restarted, increasing market supply and driving acid prices lower again. Smelter-grade acid prices in parts of Anhui, Hubei, and Henan fell below 1,000 RMB/ton. Low-priced goods continued to flow into higher-priced regions, further intensifying bearish sentiment. End-users increasingly adopted a "buy on rises, not on falls" mentality. With the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, acid producers anticipated inventory reduction, while downstream buyers exerted more price pressure, shifting the market towards a buyer's dominance. By the end of the month, market prices accelerated their downward search for a bottom. High-price region downstream users accelerated purchasing, leading to significant inventory drops for enterprises. Market prices showed a downward trend: Sulfur-based acid in Jiangsu fell by 15.00%/4.55% MoM, and in Anhui by 4.35%/4.00%; Smelter-grade acid in Anhui fell by 36.03%/35.31% MoM, and in Hubei by 26.67%/25.00%. Overall, strong supply and weak demand persisted throughout the month. Cost support shifted from loosening to weakening. Expectations of pre-holiday inventory clearance and restricted transportation suppressed market sentiment, causing prices to accelerate their bottoming out at the end of the month.

Fluorspar: During this period, the fluorspar market consolidated at high levels with limited upside potential. The market atmosphere for 97% fluorspar concentrate in September remained relatively firm, though trader sentiment diverged. There was slight differentiation between Northern and Southern markets, accompanied by inconsistent trader psychology. From the perspective of the Northern market, external supplies continuously flowed in, stabilizing trader sentiment. However, negative signals continued to transmit from end-users, and downstream players offered limited room to holders. Most stockists preferred to sell off inventory at high prices to secure profits. Conversely, the Southern market saw more transactions at high prices. Hydrogen fluoride pricing continued to rise. Suppliers united to maintain firm high-price quotes. Downstream demand for high-quality fluorspar remained robust, leaving little room for negotiation. Although some supply-side startups occurred, along with the penetration of goods from the North or Northwest, longer supply cycles made it difficult to alleviate immediate shortages ("quenching thirst").

4. Future Outlook and Analysis

Chempricehub Forecast: Looking ahead to October, the cost side of the domestic aluminum fluoride market is expected to remain high. Fluorspar prices will stay firm, and declines in other raw material costs are unlikely to offset the cost increment brought by fluorspar. Meanwhile, tight market supply provides support. Coupled with adjustments in downstream negotiation models, this leaves a certain margin for upstream enterprises to recover profits. It is predicted that aluminum fluoride prices may experience a narrow upward movement, with the operating range expected to be around 11,700–12,000 RMB/ton.