1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. Iran has proposed a seven-day plan to the United States to advance peace talks.
2. Mediators such as Qatar continue to push for US-Iran negotiations, while Saudi crude oil supply has partially recovered.
3. The average Asia-US price spread during the period was $537.1/ton, down $47.21/ton from the previous period.

2. Domestic Market Review

This week, regional trends in the domestic toluene market diverged significantly, intensifying the tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors. Short-covering rallies in pure benzene at month-end became the core driver, compounded by differences in pre-holiday restocking rhythms, leading to varied spot performance across regions.

Shandong Region: Negotiation atmosphere for toluene gradually weakened, with downstream users becoming more cautious about chasing price increases. Following earlier price rises, end-users slowed their purchasing willingness, mainly placing small orders based on immediate needs. There was insufficient incentive for large-scale stockpiling, resulting in limited transaction volumes and dominant wait-and-see sentiment.

Jiangsu Region: The toluene market maintained firm offer prices. With month-end delivery approaching, holders exhibited strong reluctance to sell at low prices. Driven by short-covering in pure benzene at month-end, benzene prices rose sharply, boosting overall sentiment in the aromatics market. Currently, downstream pre-holiday restocking has concluded, and some cargo is expected to arrive at ports during the National Day holiday, leading to inventory accumulation. Market participants are increasingly inclined to exit positions, reducing trading activity and leaving toluene transactions thin.

Guangdong Region: Toluene trading atmosphere remained flat. As the holiday approaches, market participants' operational enthusiasm has cooled significantly, and spot trading has become quiet. Downstream users are sensitive to high prices, and combined with the conclusion of pre-holiday restocking, spot prices have maintained narrow fluctuations. However, toluene spot supply remains tight, keeping prices at relatively high levels.

Table: Price List for Toluene and Downstream Products

Unit: CNY/ton

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

3. Market Outlook

During the National Day holiday, Shandong refineries will maintain normal quoted prices and shipments. However, due to pre-holiday inventory clearance and forward sales by refineries, procuring spot goods within the market will remain difficult. Currently, there are no clear guidance signals from fundamentals, and there are expectations of inventory buildup at Jiangsu terminals. Therefore, industry participants are closely watching toluene production and sales dynamics in the Shandong region during the holiday. Given that the current situation represents a game between costs and demand, the bottom support for the toluene market remains intact, suggesting prices will likely continue to fluctuate on the stronger side.

For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Toluene Weekly Report.