Fundamentals provide support, keeping toluene prices oscillating at elevated levels.

1. Today’s Summary

1. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract closed at USD 91.85 per barrel, up by USD 0.36 per barrel, representing a period-over-period increase of +0.39%. ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract closed at USD 104.72 per barrel, up by USD 0.44 per barrel, representing a period-over-period increase of +0.42%.

2. Production and sales status of gasoline in Shandong Province.

3. Toluene shipments from refineries in Shandong were poor.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Toluene Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Today, trading activity in the domestic toluene market remained generally sluggish. The lack of effective guidance from crude oil prices and USD-denominated news heightened market participants' wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a noticeable decline in operational willingness. Refinery auction transactions showed a distinct atmosphere, with production-sales ratios dropping significantly and poor shipment performance, resulting in low overall trading activity. In Guangdong, traders entered the market to purchase, keeping toluene prices at high levels.

3. Price Forecast

The short-term toluene market is expected to fluctuate at high levels, tracking crude oil trends, characterized by "support at the bottom and resistance on the upside." Currently, marginal demand weakening in gasoline blending and disproportionation puts downward pressure on the center of gravity of toluene prices. However, low port inventories and refineries' willingness to maintain prices will still constrain the extent of any potential pullback.

4. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Toluene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)