Key Market Focus This Week
The G7 plans to release emergency fuel reserves without restricting oil exports, easing supply concerns.
The United States stated that dialogue and negotiation channels with Iran remain open, alleviating market anxiety.
During the period, the average price differential between Asia and the US stood at USD 441.41/ton, a decrease of USD 95.69/ton from the previous period.
Domestic Market Review This Week
Figure 1: Trend Chart of Major Domestic Toluene Markets (CNY/ton)
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
During the National Day holiday, international crude oil prices retreated from highs due to the easing of Middle East geopolitical conflicts and the G7's plan to release strategic reserves. However, prices maintained high-level oscillation as cost support remained intact. The Asian aromatics sector showed a divergent pattern. Domestically, trading activity was sluggish due to the National Day holiday, with market participants exiting and liquidity constrained. In the USD-denominated market, tight toluene supply supported stronger prices. Rising freight rates to South Asia led the market to expect an expansion in the India CFR toluene spread. While solvent demand in Southeast Asia remained weak, seller offers held firm. Some producers indicated they might consider shutting down BTX units if the margin between aromatics and feedstocks becomes insufficient.
Specifically, spot prices for gasoline and aromatics in Shandong declined slightly. The average production-to-sales ratio for gasoline was approximately 70%, while the overall production-to-sales ratio for toluene at refineries was below 39%, failing to reach equilibrium. However, pre-holiday inventory clearance was smooth, and most refineries had already sold their output through October 3-4. Actual inventories were significantly better than the production-to-sales data suggested. Combined with continued tightness in refinery feedstock supply and very limited willingness to proactively cut prices, the market exhibited a typical "prices slightly down, inventories not accumulating, refineries holding prices" scenario rather than genuine oversupply. Supply contracted further: Xin Chemicals' unit underwent unplanned shutdown, and Tangshan Dimu increased demand after resuming operations, adding pressure to an already tight supply situation. On the first day back from the holiday, related aromatics futures hit the daily limit-up, concentrating bullish sentiment and driving toluene prices higher.
Table: Price List for Toluene and Downstream Products
Unit: CNY/ton
| Product | Region/Category | Current Period | Previous Period | Change | % Change | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluene | Jiangsu | 9025 | 8820 | 205 | 2.32% | CNY/ton |
| Guangdong | 9110 | 9000 | 110 | 1.22% | USD/ton | |
| Shandong | 8865 | 8675 | 190 | 2.19% | CNY/ton | |
| Pure Benzene | Shandong | 10406 | 10046 | 360 | 3.58% | CNY/ton |
| TDI | East China | 17800 | 17800 | 0 | 0.00% | CNY/ton |
| Gasoline | Shandong | 9850 | 10093 | -243 | -2.41% | CNY/ton |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
The toluene market is expected to maintain a strong trend this week. Although concentrated vessel arrivals are anticipated in the Jiangsu region, arbitrage spreads with neighboring areas exist, and paper trades will provide directional guidance for surrounding markets. The supply-demand structure in the Shandong region is strengthening further, with rising demand from outside the region. Refineries continue to show strong intent to hold prices, making it easy for prices to rise but difficult to fall. Key factors to watch include crude oil geopolitical developments, the intensity of downstream restocking upon resumption of work, and the operational status of refinery units.
For more weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Weekly Toluene Report.
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