No inventory pressure; offers raised (2026-09-20)

1. Today's Summary

① Sep 18: International crude oil prices fell as expectations for the repair of Saudi Arabian pipelines improved, coupled with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. NYMEX October crude futures closed at $100.3/barrel, down $1.61/barrel (-1.58% WoW); ICE November Brent futures closed at $103.87/barrel, down $0.95/barrel (-0.91% WoW). China INE November 2026 crude futures fell by RMB 50.6 to RMB 754.4/barrel; the night session dropped by RMB 19.6 to RMB 734.8/barrel.

② Sep 20: Domestic liquid chlorine prices were adjusted upward today to RMB 400/ton.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Dichloromethane Prices (Unit: RMB/ton)

Based on the Shandong region, dichloromethane closed today at RMB 2410/ton (range: RMB 2400-2420/ton), an increase from the previous working day. The center of gravity for the domestic dichloromethane market shifted upward today. Overall operating rates declined, and following pre-holiday restocking purchases by downstream users and traders, inventory pressure on regional enterprises was relieved. Additionally, high raw material prices led chloromethanes producers, who are operating at a loss, to maintain firm price offers, further pushing the market center upward.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for chloromethanes stood at 69.43%, a decrease from the previous working day. Regarding cost and profit, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices rose today while methanol prices remained stable, leading to an increase in theoretical costs for chloromethanes. Calculated based on externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit margin for chloromethanes is -RMB 474/ton.

4. Price Forecast

With no significant inventory pressure on regional enterprises, combined with high raw material prices and a "buy on rise, not on fall" sentiment among downstream users and traders, current market follow-through momentum remains decent. Producers are expected to continue maintaining strong price offers. While there is still some upside potential for the domestic dichloromethane market, considering that prices have risen to relatively high levels and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, demand growth may slow down. Therefore, the overall adjustment space is limited.

5. Related Products

Refrigerant Market: Based on the bulk shipment market in East China, mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 factories maintained high prices and implemented volume control to support pricing. As of press time, quotes from major manufacturers in East China referenced RMB 65,500/ton (coordinated domestic and export quotes); mainstream market quotes in East China ranged from RMB 63,500 to 64,500/ton, consistent with morning expectations. According to market intelligence, inquiries for bulk shipments in the channel market remain passively weak long-term. With fixed supply guarantees for main OEMs and slower shipping frequencies for small packages, source factories strictly control spot inventory increases. Statistics show that the industry-wide operating load for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 remains near 40-50%. Recently, factory production schedules and consumption forces have contracted further. Under the sideways trend at high levels, channel holders are seeking opportunities to sell off inventory, showing little intention to purchase high-cost sources, and are waiting for clear quote signals from mainstream manufacturers. Chempricehub predicts that short-term strategy for fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 will focus on volume control and price maintenance, with commercial negotiations determining contract prices. Monitor industry unit dynamics and production scheduling rhythms.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Overview of Domestic Chloromethanes Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)