I. Key Points
Core Logic: The market is undergoing a tug-of-war between supply and demand fundamentals, resulting in weak consolidation trends.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 29 | Sep 28 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong (Delivered) | 13,675 | 13,750 | -0.55% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Ex-tank Self-pickup | 13,300 | 13,525 | -1.66% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 102.59 | 105.28 | -2.56% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15,400 | 15,400 | 0.00% |
| Remarks: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices listed are point-in-time prices from the two previous working weeks prior to this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
With short-term crude oil and naphtha prices remaining at elevated levels, there continues to be some support from the cost side, and traders show limited willingness to lower their offers. However, downstream industry profit margins are recovering slowly, operational enthusiasm among enterprises remains weak, and resistance to purchasing expensive raw materials persists. These factors may suppress market momentum and drag down quotes from certain merchants. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is expected to experience narrow-range fluctuations.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Value | Expected Trend for Current Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.55 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 4,396.54 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 4.09 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Fri 17:00 PM | 66.53% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 10.77 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%. |
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