I. Key Points
Core Logic: Supply-demand fundamentals are in a stalemate, leading to range-bound market consolidation.
II. Price List
| Product | Region | Oct 8 | Sep 30 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Central Delivery | 14,175 | 13,700 | 3.47% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Ex-tank Pickup | 13,900 | 13,400 | 3.73% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,610 | 1,600 | 0.63% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 104.28 | 103.53 | 0.72% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 16,400 | 15,900 | 3.14% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China and crude oil are USD/ton and USD/barrel respectively; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. The two price periods refer to point-in-time prices from the two preceding working weeks, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. The change rate reflects the period-over-period percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
In the short term, crude oil and naphtha prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory, providing strong cost support for butadiene. The rise in synthetic rubber, the key downstream product, has boosted market sentiment, encouraging sellers to actively maintain higher offers. However, restarts of facilities at some domestic companies have slightly supplemented supply. Combined with limited downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials, which creates significant resistance to transactions at elevated levels, this may exert some pressure on the market. Consequently, the domestic butadiene market is projected to trade within a fluctuating range.
IV. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wed 17:00 PM | 2.6 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Fri 17:00 PM | 4,396.54 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Fri 17:00 PM | 4.29 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Fri 17:00 PM | 68.55% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Fri 17:00 PM | 11.09 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%. |
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