I. Key Points

1. Escalating conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has heightened supply risks, while market assessments anticipate increased Russian supply, leading to mixed movements in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (November contract) rose by USD 0.40/bbl to USD 94.14/bbl (+0.43%); ICE Brent crude oil futures (December contract) fell by USD 0.96/bbl to USD 105.69/bbl (-0.90%). China INE crude oil futures (SC2612 contract) rose by CNY 22.5 to CNY 732/bbl during the day session and further gained CNY 8.6 to CNY 740.6/bbl in the night session.

2. As of October 13, Japanese naphtha closed at USD 996.5/ton, down USD 9.5/ton from the previous trading day. Singapore naphtha closed at USD 105.25/bbl, down USD 1.05/bbl from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic cracked C5 prices from major state-owned enterprises remained stable, while Shandong mixed C5 prices dipped slightly due to average sales volumes; market trading sentiment cooled significantly. Private enterprises still face tight supply of cracked C5 resources today, maintaining a trend of steady price increases with little gap compared to state-owned enterprise prices. Regarding deep processing, low inventory levels of isoprene monomers and robust downstream demand continue to push prices higher. Resin prices remain temporarily stable, though buying interest is moderate.

4. The market for cracked C5 residue liquid maintained a wait-and-see attitude yesterday. The gasoline market fluctuated sideways, with a production-sales ratio of 82%. Prices for substitutable products like mixed C5 weakened. Market trading sentiment was poor, and the cracked C5 residue liquid market is expected to maintain a stable, wait-and-see stance.

5. Domestic piperylene prices were primarily stable yesterday with localized slight increases. Limited on-site supply supported factories in maintaining high prices, but downstream willingness to chase highs was insufficient, leading to cautious purchasing based on rigid demand. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from CNY 9,200 to CNY 10,300/ton.

6. The domestic isoprene market continued to stabilize yesterday. Supply remains tight, but downstream lack of momentum to chase higher prices persists. Feedstock cracked C5 prices are stable. Today's market is expected to consolidate temporarily, with attention focused on feedstock and downstream trends. Mainstream bid/ask prices in East China ranged from CNY 14,000 to CNY 14,600/ton.

7. Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) prices ranged from CNY 9,300 to CNY 9,600/ton yesterday. Low-end prices stabilized due to existing customers and prior orders, while some auctioned batches reached as high as CNY 9,900/ton. Current market supply remains tight, with no significant increase in supply anticipated in the short term. Supported by rigid downstream demand, prices are expected to maintain high-level consolidation.

8. Mainstream prices for road marking paint-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 9,850 to CNY 11,000/ton yesterday. Downstream buyers mostly maintained rigid-demand procurement due to high resin prices. Manufacturers face significant cost pressure and continuous losses in non-deep-processing directions, resulting in stagnant market trading and sporadic price increases.

9. Mainstream prices for piperylene-based adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 11,800 to CNY 13,600/ton, while de-cyclized adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin ranged from CNY 10,500 to CNY 11,200/ton. Manufacturers are primarily fulfilling existing orders with limited spot availability. Downstream rigid demand remains solid, supporting high prices with sporadic upward adjustments.

Core Logic: Cracked C5 rising, isoprene stable, piperylene locally rising, DCPD rising, and C5 petroleum resins showing slight upward movement amidst stability.

II. Price Tables

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic cracked C5 prices from major state-owned enterprises are expected to remain stable, while private enterprise prices will hold up reasonably well. Mixed C5 prices may dip slightly, remaining roughly level with cracked C5 prices. In terms of deep processing, isoprene monomer prices are expected to remain firm, while enthusiasm for resin procurement is moderate.

The cracked C5 residue liquid market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Gasoline refineries have faced challenges for several days, lacking motivation to support prices. Mixed C5 sales have been sluggish, causing a slight decline in market conditions. Although market sentiment is weak, international crude oil prices remain high. Amidst this stalemate between bullish and bearish factors, Chempricehub anticipates that the cracked C5 residue liquid market will oscillate within a narrow range in the near term.

Overnight crude oil fluctuations were minimal, offering limited guidance to the market. Gasoline refineries have failed to meet production-sales targets for multiple days. Despite high crude oil prices, end-user sentiment is bearish, and mixed C5 sales have been poor for several days. Chempricehub expects the mixed C5 market to trade weakly today.

Isoprene is expected to consolidate at high levels. The overall tight supply pattern for isoprene continues, leaving factories free from inventory pressure; however, major downstream players lack the momentum to chase higher prices, suggesting price consolidation at elevated levels.

Piperylene is expected to consolidate at high levels. Factories currently face no inventory pressure, providing support for maintaining high prices. However, downstream costs are under strain, reducing purchasing motivation and leading to cautious observation. Piperylene prices are projected to stabilize at high levels.

DCPD is expected to see its price center shift upwards. With crude oil running high and dual-supply sources remaining limited, spot availability is tight as export orders are executed, keeping the market operating at high levels.

For road marking paint-grade C5 petroleum resin, construction volumes in northern regions may decrease slightly. In the short term, scarce manufacturer spot supplies and persistent cost pressures result in stagnant trading, with negotiated prices stabilizing at high levels. For adhesive-grade C5 petroleum resin, supply is gradually recovering. Transaction volumes remain high, supported by strong cost-side backing from elevated international crude oil prices, keeping negotiated prices firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Cracked C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)