Demand remains flat, driving a downward trend in ethylene oxide prices.

1. Daily Summary

1. Nov 6: The market focused on the risk of renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, while mediators continued to push for peace talks. International crude oil prices rose slightly. NYMEX WTI December futures closed at $90.83/bbl, up $0.31/bbl (+0.34% QoQ); ICE Brent January futures closed at $98.32/bbl, up $0.03/bbl (+0.03% QoQ). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2701) rose by CNY 1.2 to CNY 631.8/bbl in the day session, and gained CNY 2.1 to CNY 633.9/bbl in the night session.

2. Nov 6: Port-side ethylene CFR Northeast Asia USD prices stood at USD 1,240/ton, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide prices declined today. On the supply side, operating units remained stable, with some short-term shutdown units restarting; overall supply saw no significant new additions. On the demand side, major downstream users purchased based on rigid contract requirements, resulting in flat demand performance. Regarding costs, domestic ethylene prices remained high, reducing selling pressure for producers, causing market offers to soften marginally. Overall, although cost support existed, weak demand follow-through dragged down the market, leading to a clear decline in ethylene oxide prices today. Continued attention should be paid to upstream and downstream dynamics.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry was 54.53%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was CNY 1,270.73/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was CNY 112.5/ton today, representing a decrease compared to the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, some units experienced short-term temporary shutdowns, while Jilin Petrochemical ended its temporary outage and resumed production. Overall market supply remains stable, with tight supply in East China. On the demand side, downstream users may replenish inventory due to price adjustments, but there is currently no significant increase in downstream market demand, which remains primarily driven by rigid needs. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices softened marginally, and downstream derivative industries maintained rigid purchasing, procuring quantities according to production orders. Overall, fundamentals show no obvious fluctuations, and EO prices are expected to remain stable. Upstream and downstream changes require continued monitoring.

5. Related Product Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Domestic producers increased their willingness to ship ethylene. Derivative prices generally trended downward, leading to weak profitability. Today's market trading atmosphere was average, and external procurement demand failed to provide support. Domestic ethylene prices are expected to remain largely stable. Mainstream negotiation prices in East China are projected to hold at CNY 10,000–10,500/ton, while Shandong mainstream negotiation prices are around CNY 10,300/ton. In terms of USD pricing, shipping markets remain tight, supporting firm USD market prices. USD prices are expected to range between USD 1,200–1,280/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may weaken further. The primary raw material, ethylene oxide, may stabilize after recent declines. Jilin Petrochemical's unit has restarted, while others have shut down, keeping intra-market supply relatively tight. Downstream industries are replenishing stock as needed. Circulating ethylene supplies in Northern China may increase, suggesting a high probability of stable ethylene prices tomorrow, with relatively steady cost trends. Monomer manufacturers may continue to lower prices due to softening raw material costs. Downstream users remain in wait-and-see mode with weak purchasing intent, negotiating prices based on volume. Consequently, EPEG prices in the key East China market are forecasted to be in the range of CNY 10,000–10,200/ton.

③ Monoethylene Glycol (Related Product): Geopolitical situations have not changed significantly, but the market trend is easing. Crude oil is in a downtrend. Based on recent MEG trends, low valuations provide downside support, making it difficult to form a clear short-term trend. Tomorrow's spot self-pickup prices in East China are estimated to be in the range of CNY 5,500–5,600/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)