Market in a Cautious Wait-and-See Mode; Butadiene Prices Edge Lower

1. Today's Summary

① On September 29, Sinopec East China ex-factory price for butadiene remained stable at 13,500 RMB/ton. The downstream synthetic rubber market prices were also stable.

② On September 29, the domestic butadiene industry capacity utilization rate was 67.36%, a slight decrease from the previous working day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table: Domestic Butadiene Price Summary (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Based on the delivered price in the Shandong Luzhong region, today's closing price was 13,675 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 75 RMB/ton. Today, domestic butadiene market prices declined. The recovery of downstream demand still requires time. The trend of major downstream synthetic rubber products is downward, intensifying cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Follow-up buying interest for butadiene was moderate, dragging sellers to lower their offers and causing actual transaction prices to fall. Consequently, the market trend moved downward; however, support from cost factors limited the extent of the decline. The delivered price range in the Shandong Luzhong region was 13,600–13,750 RMB/ton, while the reference price for tank truck self-pickup in East China was 13,300 RMB/ton.

On September 29, the domestic butadiene industry capacity utilization rate was 67.36%, a slight decrease from the previous working day. Regarding theoretical production profits, on September 28, the Japanese naphtha market fell, while Sinopec's butadiene price remained stable at 13,500 RMB/ton. The theoretical production profit for butadiene extraction via C4 route decreased, with the calculated profit for the C4 extraction process standing at 4,292.65 RMB/ton.

4. Price Forecast

In the short term, influenced by the approaching holiday, market sentiment has slightly cooled, and downstream purchasing intent is not high. Although some traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressures, downstream acceptance of higher prices is limited. This drags down actual transaction prices and suppresses market trends. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will weaken slightly and fluctuate within a narrow range. Participants should cautiously monitor changes in supply and demand for guidance.

5. Related Products Status

Synthetic Rubber Market: Today, polybutadiene rubber (BR) and styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) market prices showed mixed movements. In the Shandong market, Daqing BR9000 prices remained stable at 15,400 RMB/ton, while Qilu SBR 1502 prices decreased by 100 RMB/ton to 15,700 RMB/ton.

6. Data Calendar

Table: Domestic Butadiene Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons, RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.