What drives the price spread between ammonium chloride and soda ash in the joint-process economics?

For joint-process producers, ammonium chloride is a by-product that directly influences profitability. In 2023, prices dropped from 1,200-1,300 yuan/ton at the start of the year to 800-900 yuan/ton by year-end, pressuring companies like Hubei Shuanghuan, which saw inventories build as compound fertilizer demand weakened and exports stalled. By 2025, the average fell further to 650 yuan/ton, near the breakeven for many. Producers cannot adjust output independently—ammonium chloride volume is dictated by soda ash production. This creates a rigid supply dynamic. When soda ash prices are weak, as in 2025 with prices around 1,400 yuan/ton, both products sit near cost, forcing capacity rationalization. The market outlook suggests gradual recovery: ammonium chloride prices are projected to average 700 yuan/ton in 2026, climbing to 800 yuan/ton in 2027 as oversupply narrows to near balance.