Low enterprise inventory pressure; market uptrend continues.

1. Today's Summary

① 9/18: International crude oil prices fell as expectations for the repair of Saudi oil pipelines improved, coupled with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. NYMEX October crude futures closed at $100.3, down $1.61/bbl (-1.58%); ICE November Brent futures closed at $103.87, down $0.95/bbl (-0.91%). INE November crude futures (contract 2611) dropped by 50.6 to 754.4 yuan/barrel, and fell another 19.6 to 734.8 yuan/barrel during the night session.

② 9/21: Domestic liquid chlorine prices were lowered to 350 yuan/ton today.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Dichloromethane Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Taking the Shandong region as a benchmark, dichloromethane prices in Shandong closed at 2435 yuan/ton today (range: 2420-2450 yuan/ton), an increase from the previous working day. The center of gravity for the domestic dichloromethane market shifted upward today. Overall operating rates remained around 70%. Following pre-holiday restocking by downstream users and traders, regional enterprise inventories faced no pressure. Combined with high raw material prices, chloromethane enterprises continued to maintain firm offers despite losses, pushing the market center upward.

3. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate for chloromethanes stood at 69.43%, unchanged from the previous working day. Regarding cost and profit, upstream raw material liquid chlorine prices declined today while methanol prices remained stable, leading to a decrease in the theoretical cost of chloromethanes. Based on calculations using externally sourced liquid chlorine, the daily profit for chloromethanes was -405 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

With no inventory pressure among regional enterprises, combined with high raw material prices and a "buy rising, not falling" sentiment among downstream users and traders, current market follow-through momentum remains acceptable. Enterprises are expected to continue maintaining strong offers. While there is still some upside potential for the domestic dichloromethane market, considering that prices have risen to relatively high levels and the upcoming dual holidays (Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day), demand intensity may slow down. Therefore, the overall adjustment space is limited.

5. Related Product Status

Refrigerant Market: Taking the East China spot market as a benchmark, mainstream factories for fluororefrigerant R32 maintained high-level consolidation and implemented volume control to support prices. As of press time, major East China producers quoted reference prices at 65,500 yuan/ton (coordinated domestic and export quotes); mainstream East China market quotes referenced 63,500-64,500 yuan/ton, consistent with morning expectations. Market intelligence indicates that inquiries in the channel spot market have been passively low for a long time. Fixed supply guarantees for OEMs are in place, but small-package shipment frequency has slowed. Consequently, source factories strictly controlled spot inventory increases. Statistics show that industry-wide operating loads for fluororefrigerant R32 remained near 40-50%. Recently, factory production plans and consumption forces contracted further. Under high-level sideways movement for R32, channel holders sought opportunities to sell off inventory, showing weak willingness to purchase high-cost supplies, waiting for clear pricing signals from mainstream large-scale producers. Chempricehub forecasts that fluororefrigerant R32 will primarily focus on volume control and price support in the short term, with negotiated contract pricing, while monitoring industry unit dynamics and production schedules.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Chloromethane Data Overview (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)