Lead-in: Pre-holiday East China pure benzene port inventories remained at low levels. Coupled with strong month-end short squeeze sentiment, the pure benzene basis widened to 2,300 RMB/ton, and the inter-month spread expanded beyond 1,500 RMB/ton. Spot offers rose to a high of 11,850 RMB/ton, while the north-south price gap for pure benzene widened to 1,900 RMB/ton, driving further increases in northern hydrogenated benzene prices before the holiday. Shandong region closed at a high level of 10,000 RMB/ton. During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival long holiday, international crude oil prices retreated from highs. Most domestic pure benzene markets were closed, except for the Shandong local refinery petroleum benzene market, which operated normally and maintained high prices. On October 7, prices settled at 10,000–10,090 RMB/ton.
International Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Table During National Day Holiday (Unit: USD/barrel)
| Product | Region / Grade | Sep 30 | Oct 6 | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | WTI | 90.42 | 89.44 | -0.98 | -1.08% |
| Brent | 103.53 | 100.58 | -2.95 | -2.85% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
International crude oil markets did not close during the National Day holiday, and market attention on oil prices remained high.
G7 member countries and partners, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA), will release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over the next four months. They also committed to "avoiding export restrictions on energy and energy products," thereby easing supply concerns and causing international oil prices to fall.
The decline in crude oil prices during the holiday somewhat affected the sentiment of the domestic pure benzene market. However, most domestic pure benzene markets were closed. Regarding hydrogenated benzene, the market was closed during the holiday; factories had sold two weeks' worth of inventory before the holiday and primarily executed pre-holiday orders during the break. At the end of September, shipment prices from Shandong factories were at 10,000 RMB/ton.
For petroleum benzene, most domestic markets were closed, but the Shandong local refinery petroleum benzene market continued normal sales during the holiday. On October 7, mainstream transaction prices for petroleum benzene were 10,000–10,090 RMB/ton, showing little change compared to the closing range of 9,970–10,123 RMB/ton on September 30.
Regarding petroleum benzene, after the National Day holiday, Yangzi Petrochemical's reforming and aromatics units are scheduled to restart on October 16. Hainan Refining & Chemical plans to restart between October 16 and 20. Fujia Dahuaxue's disproportionation unit is planned to return on October 23.
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Regarding hydrogenated benzene, the operating rate of domestic benzene hydrogenation units was 55.50% at the end of September. Ansteel Chemical and Hebei Ruixin Jinhua units restarted; Henan Shouchuang reduced load to 10-20%, and Henan Jinyuan Phase II shut down. Since capacity reductions exceeded new starts, the domestic benzene hydrogenation operating rate declined by the end of September. After the National Day holiday, Panjin Ruide, Puyang Zhonghui, and Ningxia Baofeng plan to shut down, while Hebei Rongte, Inner Mongolia Qinghua, and Henan Jinyuan Phase II plan to restart. With new starting capacity exceeding shutdown capacity, the domestic benzene hydrogenation operating rate is expected to rise to approximately 56.77%.
With both domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene units scheduled for restarts, the supply of pure benzene in China is expected to increase in October.
Hydrogenated Benzene Monthly Core Demand Data (October figures are estimates, Unit: 10,000 tons)
| Product | September | October E | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Styrene Demand | 109.2 | 110.5 | 1.3 |
| Caprolactam Demand | 43.3 | 47.5 | 4.2 |
| Phenol Demand | 41.2 | 46.4 | 5.2 |
| Aniline Demand | 31.7 | 33.3 | 1.6 |
| Adipic Acid Demand | 16.9 | 19.0 | 2.1 |
| Other Demand | 11.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Total Demand | 253.3 | 267.7 | 14.4 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In October, the consumption of pure benzene by major downstream sectors in China is estimated at 256.7 ten-thousand tons, with other downstream products consuming an estimated 11 ten-thousand tons of pure benzene. Thus, total consumption for October is projected at 267.7 ten-thousand tons. Although some styrene/aniline/adipic acid units plan to reduce output or shut down after the holiday, multiple previously idle units are also scheduled to restart. Therefore, domestic pure benzene demand is expected to increase in October.
Before the National Day holiday, domestic pure benzene prices remained high. Most downstream users purchased based on rigid demand in small, frequent batches, keeping raw material inventories at low levels. During the eight-day holiday, downstream pure benzene units operated largely normally. Assuming pre-holiday orders continue to be executed, some downstream users are expected to begin replenishing stocks after the holiday.
Crude oil prices fell during the holiday, causing Shandong petroleum benzene prices to dip slightly before rebounding. On October 7, prices held at 10,000–10,090 RMB/ton. Downstream users with rigid demand found it difficult to source low-priced goods, with receiving prices rising from 10,080 RMB/ton to 10,200 RMB/ton. This provides support for local refineries to maintain firm prices when pure benzene trading resumes after the holiday.
New orders for domestic hydrogenated benzene may begin negotiations after the holiday. Influenced by the high prices of Shandong petroleum benzene, new order prices for hydrogenated benzene are expected to remain elevated. Additionally, post-holiday restocking by some downstream users will provide support, making a significant drop in hydrogenated benzene prices unlikely for now.
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