How will the EU carbon border tax reshape China's ammonium sulfate exports to Europe?

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Yuki Tanaka

Published on 2026-08-11

How will the EU carbon border tax reshape China's ammonium sulfate exports to Europe?
China's ammonium sulfate shipments to the EU jumped from 395,000 tons in 2024 to 1.445 million tons in 2025, with December alone hitting 519,000 tons. This spike is largely pre-CBAM stockpiling rather than organic demand growth. The apparent price advantage is misleading: Chinese FOB prices around USD 265/ton in April 2026, plus freight, insurance, port fees, financing, and inland logistics, narrow the real cost gap versus German domestic prices to just USD 30-80 per ton. Once CBAM carbon costs are fully applied from 2026 onward, this thin margin could be erased entirely. Exporters must recalculate competitiveness based on full landed cost, not just factory-gate pricing.

ammonium sulfate

Comments

Sarah Mitchell 2026-08-12 08:23

European buyers have already shifted purchasing patterns. Since 2023, many have downgraded from premium caprolactam-grade to cheaper coking-grade ammonium sulfate to control costs amid inflation and energy crises. This 'race to the bottom' means Chinese exporters competing on price alone face a double squeeze: CBAM erodes margins while quality premiums disappear. Product differentiation through granulation or low-biuret specs may be the only sustainable path.

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