October Granular Demand Supports Sustained Rise in Domestic Ammonium Sulfate Prices (October 2026)

1. Monthly Market Highlights

1. Raw material and granular plants are actively engaging in centralized procurement, customs clearance, and exports, resulting in a robust trading atmosphere in the domestic market.
2. The second batch of self-discipline quotas was released on October 24; export performance has exceeded expectations.

2. Domestic Ammonium Sulfate Market Monthly Overview

As of October 28, the mainstream reference prices for coking-grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan stood at 1,167.5 RMB/ton, 1,102.5 RMB/ton, and 1,097.5 RMB/ton, respectively, representing month-on-month changes of +14.91%, +17.41%, and +11.20%.

Table 1: Comparison of Price Changes for Coking-Grade Ammonium Sulfate in Major Domestic Production Areas (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

The ammonium sulfate market experienced steady upward adjustments in October. On the supply side, operating rates for raw material enterprises in caprolactam and coking sectors remained generally stable, with minimal changes in other by-product supplies. On the demand side, although India issued a new round of urea tenders earlier in the month—where initial low bids led to pessimistic market sentiment—subsequent bid resistance resulted in unfilled quantities, slightly boosting sentiment. International terminal quotes for ammonium sulfate remained high, primarily because non-self-disciplined granular plants were actively procuring, stocking, and clearing customs for exports during the early part of the month. Additionally, self-disciplined enterprises had limited surplus quotas remaining for both raw materials and granules, leading suppliers to hold back inventory and quote higher prices. By the end of the month, international demand continued to focus on granular products. Domestically, actual procurement volumes were limited due to high raw material prices, with purchases mainly driven by rigid demand. Regarding market sentiment, although domestic raw material prices continued to rise this month, transactions mostly involved fulfilling previous orders. New unit prices were relatively high, limiting actual transactions and increasing the risk of purchasing at elevated levels.

3. Related Product Market Analysis

The domestic urea market trended weakly with fluctuations in October. On the supply side, industry operating rates remained high, with plant maintenance and restarts progressing concurrently. Overall supply was abundant, factory inventories continued to accumulate, and only a few units experienced short stops or reduced output due to malfunctions, maintaining significant supply pressure. On the demand side, the market was in a traditional gap period for agricultural demand; autumn top-dressing was winding down, large-scale winter stockpiling had not yet begun, and downstream industrial sectors such as compound fertilizers and melamine showed weak operating rates. Market activity was characterized by small, need-based orders with little concentrated volume, indicating insufficient overall demand support. Influenced by the supply-demand structure, market sentiment remained cautious. Traders' willingness to stockpile was low, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding the timing of winter stockpiling and export news, resulting in relatively cautious procurement. International markets focused on Indian tender dynamics; while overseas quotes provided some sentiment guidance, winning bid prices fell short of expectations, port aggregation increments were limited, and exports failed to provide effective stimulation. Dominated by strong supply and weak demand, urea prices lacked sustained upward momentum, and the market center shifted downward through fluctuations. As of October 28, the market price in Linyi, Shandong, was 1,720 RMB/ton, with a monthly average of 1,740 RMB/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of 1.30%.

4. Outlook

The ammonium sulfate market is expected to decline from high levels in November. Positive factors include limited fluctuation in domestic supply capacity; even if maintained units resume production, the overall impact on incremental supply will be modest due to general operating rate constraints. Negative factors relate to demand: Brazilian demand for granular products is gradually weakening, potentially shifting towards crystalline ammonium sulfate procurement in preparation for next year's Australian fertilizer demand. Domestic trade remains driven by rigid demand, with buyers watching raw material prices for opportunistic purchasing. For more detailed monthly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Information Ammonium Sulfate Monthly Report.