How will Japanese acrylonitrile plant closures reshape global supply?

How will Japanese acrylonitrile plant closures reshape global supply?
Asahi Kasei's decision to shutter its 200,000 mt/yr acrylonitrile line at Mizushima by fiscal 2030 marks a structural shift in global AN supply. The company will convert its 50,000 mt/yr methacrylonitrile line to a flexible AN/MAN unit, with commercial supply to be sourced from Tongsuh Petrochemical in Korea. This is part of a broader Japanese chemical retreat—Asahi, Mitsubishi Chemical, Mitsui Chemicals, and Sumitomo Chemical are all exiting or consolidating core petrochemical assets. The rationale is clear: Japan's ethylene crackers have operated below the 90% breakeven utilization for 44 consecutive months, averaging only 70% run rates. For AN buyers, this means reduced reliance on Japanese supply and greater dependence on Chinese and Korean producers. China's capacity is projected to grow from 4.14 million mt in 2023 to 7.92 million mt by 2027, cementing its role as the swing supplier.