How does China's 1,3-butadiene production capacity and regional distribution shape the market?

China is the world's largest butadiene producer, accounting for about 29% of global capacity in 2022, followed by the EU27, the US, and South Korea. Domestic production relies predominantly on C4 extraction from steam crackers, a petroleum-dependent route that ties supply closely to crude oil prices and ethylene plant operations. This concentration makes the market sensitive to feedstock cost swings and to maintenance schedules at major integrated refining-petrochemical complexes. Zhejiang Petrochemical is the largest domestic producer with roughly 700,000 tons/year, representing about 11.3% of national capacity. Efforts to diversify via oxidative dehydrogenation or ethanol-based routes remain at development stage, so near-term supply flexibility is limited. Import dependence has been declining as domestic capacity expands, but regional imbalances persist, with East China being the main consumption hub.