Fundamentals Boost Ethylene Oxide Prices (Sep 8, 2026)

1. Today's Summary

   1. September 7: As the U.S.-Iran conflict remains unresolved and Saudi oil facilities were attacked, supply risks persist and international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the U.S. Labor Day holiday with no settlement price. ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract rose USD 0.72/bbl to USD 97/bbl, up 0.75% versus the previous session. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2610 contract rose CNY 5.4 to CNY 688.5/bbl, and in night trading rose CNY 11.9 to CNY 700.4/bbl.

   2. September 7: The port ethylene USD-market CFR Northeast Asia price was USD 1,105/ton, unchanged from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: yuan/ton)

Ethylene oxide market prices were revised upward today. On the supply side, previously converted production units have not been adjusted yet, ethylene glycol prices are fluctuating at high levels, and overall ethylene oxide supply in the market remains tight. On the demand side, downstream industries have acceptable profit margins and are mainly consuming at a steady pace. On the cost side, the spot availability of ethylene in the East China region is currently tight, so production enterprises keep offers firm, while high-end prices in the region are seeing only moderate transaction volumes. Overall, with support from the supply side and firm high costs in the short term, ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain at high levels. Close attention should continue to be paid to upstream and downstream supply-demand adjustments.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of China's ethylene oxide industry was 51.60%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced from externally purchased imported ethylene was CNY 886.74/ton, with narrow fluctuation. Today, the theoretical profit for ethylene oxide produced from externally purchased domestic ethylene was CNY 681.25/ton, up from the previous period, mainly due to higher ethylene oxide prices.

4. Price Forecast

The ethylene oxide market is expected to remain at high levels. On the supply side, ethylene glycol prices may stay elevated, and co-production units are still mainly producing ethylene glycol, so ethylene oxide spot supply may remain tight. On the demand side, downstream operating rates are fluctuating within a narrow range, and overall consumption is mainly proceeding in line with contracted volumes. On the cost side, buying interest among ethylene derivatives buyers is increasing, but available ethylene spot supply remains insufficient, giving ethylene prices continued upward momentum. In summary, the short-term supply-demand pattern is slightly positive, and with obvious support from the cost side, ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain high. It is recommended to keep monitoring upstream and downstream supply-demand dynamics.

5. Related Product Situation

   ① Ethylene (feedstock): Domestic ethylene resources remain tight, and rigid demand buying interest in the market is reasonable. In the short term, ethylene prices are expected to stay firm, and domestic ethylene prices have upward momentum. Mainstream talks for ethylene in East China are likely to center around CNY 8,700–8,800/ton, while mainstream talks in Shandong have reached CNY 8,500/ton. In USD terms, the shipping market remains supported by supply, with the price range likely around USD 1,050–1,160/ton.

   ② Polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer (major downstream): The domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer market is likely to run strong. The main raw material, ethylene oxide, is expected to remain at high levels, and its tight spot supply continues. Tight ethylene glycol supply also supports high prices. Downstream maintains just-in-time purchases; buying interest in ethylene derivatives is rising, but tradable ethylene spot supply remains insufficient, giving ethylene prices continued upward momentum. Monomer producers in the market generally have delivery cycles, and holders hold a positive and eager bullish view. Downstream users are cautious about chasing high prices, buying only in small lots, and transactions are negotiated based on volume. Prices are likely to remain firm in the short term. In summary, the mainstream EPEG price in the key East China market is expected to be CNY 10,200–10,400/ton on the next business day.

   ③ Ethylene glycol (related product): With geopolitical tensions and a tight supply pattern that is difficult to ease for now, the ethylene glycol market has clear lower-end support. Tomorrow, the East China spot ex-warehouse price is expected to stay in the CNY 6,800–6,900 range.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)