Decline in raw material prices and falling monomer prices

1. Today's Summary

① Raw Materials: Ethylene oxide prices in East China fell to 9,700 yuan/ton, while domestic ethylene prices dropped to 10,250 yuan/ton.
② Demand: Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see approach.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Price Summary for Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomers (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Domestic prices for polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomers declined today. In the raw materials segment, ethylene oxide prices retreated from highs amid expectations of increased supply later on. For ethylene, producers in East China faced no shipment pressure recently, leading to slight softening in market offers. The downstream derivative industry maintained rigid demand purchasing, mostly buying according to production orders, resulting in only sporadic transactions. Cost support was weak, and the monomer market sentiment remained cautious, with average downstream purchasing willingness. Consequently, EPEG prices in the main East China market are expected to range between 10,000–10,200 yuan/ton on the next working day.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate for the polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer industry stood at 28.78%, a decrease from the previous period. The gross margin for HPEG monomers was 68 yuan/ton.

4. Price Forecast

On the next working day, domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may continue to weaken. The key raw material, ethylene oxide, is likely to stabilize after recent declines. Jilin Petrochemical has resumed operations, though some units remain shut down; overall supply within the plant remains tight. Downstream industries are replenishing stock as needed. Circulating ethylene supplies in Northern China are expected to increase, suggesting a high probability of stable ethylene prices tomorrow. Thus, cost-side trends may remain relatively steady. Affected by softening raw material prices, monomer producers may continue to lower prices. Downstream users remain in a wait-and-see mode with weak purchasing intent, leading to transaction volumes determined through negotiation. Overall, EPEG prices in the main East China market are projected to be in the range of 10,000–10,200 yuan/ton.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene Oxide (Raw Material): Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, some units have temporarily shut down, while Jilin Petrochemical has restarted after its temporary halt, keeping overall market supply stable, although supply in East China remains somewhat tight. On the demand side, downstream sectors may anticipate restocking due to price adjustments, but there is no significant surge in demand yet, with purchases mainly driven by rigid needs. On the cost side, domestic ethylene prices have softened slightly. The downstream derivative industry continues to purchase based on rigid demand, mostly procuring appropriate amounts according to production orders. Overall, fundamentals show no obvious fluctuations, and ethylene oxide prices are expected to maintain stability. Continued attention to upstream and downstream changes is required.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer Data List (Unit: 10,000 tons)