① Quotations for fluorocarbon refrigerants and their blends remained firm throughout the month, with the market expected to consolidate at high levels in the coming period.
② In September, the correlation between prices and costs for the four mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant models in East China’s domestic market remained weak. Overall profit margins declined by 11.83% month-on-month (MoM) and 10.19% year-on-year (YoY).
③ For October 2026, household air conditioner production scheduling is projected at 10.28 million units, a YoY decrease of 10.84% but an MoM increase of 5.44%. Domestic sales scheduling is forecast at 5.10 million units, down 8.36% YoY and 5.36% MoM. Export scheduling is estimated at 5.18 million units, down 13.09% YoY but up 18.81% MoM.
Fluorocarbon Refrigerant R22: Demand remains stagnant with constrained shipments. On the cost side, as of the publication date, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries are primarily fulfilling monthly orders, with domestic mainstream prices referenced at 15,050–15,200 yuan/ton, maintaining a sideways trend at elevated levels. The markets for polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) and hexafluoropropylene (HFP) saw slight declines during the month with subdued trading sentiment, exerting some drag on demand for R22 feedstock. Fundamentally, domestic mainstream prices for ODS-grade R22 are referenced at 21,000–23,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly average of 22,567 yuan/ton, representing a 3.97% decline. In September, R22 production totaled 63,500 tons, down 9.00% MoM, while capacity utilization remained high at 68.98%, down 4.32 percentage points MoM. Market intelligence indicates that major manufacturers are simultaneously delivering previous orders and accepting new pre-orders, with incremental pre-orders mainly consisting of small packages. This summer, small-package sales in the maintenance market faced pressure, leading to strong reluctance among channel distributors to sell at low prices, which collectively supported firm quotations. Regarding exports, August R22 export volumes were 7,000 tons, down 10.24% MoM; despite quota reductions, export resilience has been maintained. Chempricehub forecasts that in the near term, feedstock-grade R22 will undergo weak consolidation, while ODS-grade R22 mainstream manufacturer quotations are expected around 24,000 yuan/ton ex-works, with the price range fluctuating between 21,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton.
Fluorocarbon Refrigerant R32: The market remains steady and firm, with volume control strategies implemented to support prices. On the cost side, September anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries focused on monthly orders, with domestic mainstream prices referenced at 15,050–15,200 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, as of the publication date, domestic mainstream prices for R32 are referenced near 64,000–65,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly average of 64,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable MoM. On the supply side, September R32 production was 14,500 tons, down 4.83% MoM, with capacity utilization at 44.00%, down 0.70 percentage points MoM. Mainstream manufacturers are producing evenly according to quota progress, with an average monthly load of 40–50%. Leading suppliers are ensuring supply to air conditioner manufacturers, while multiple plants have arranged balanced inventory management, maintenance shutdowns, and stoppage plans within the month, actively supporting prices through effective volume-control strategies. Downstream, September 2026 household air conditioner production scheduling is projected at 9.75 million units, down 9.30% YoY and 9.13% MoM. Domestic sales scheduling is 5.39 million units, down 5.77% YoY and 8.18% MoM. Export scheduling is 4.36 million units, down 13.16% YoY and 10.29% MoM. Regarding exports, August R32 export volumes were 7,400 tons, down 24.09% MoM, indicating clearly weak external demand. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream R32 manufacturer quotations will reference 65,500 yuan/ton. Under the rigid constraints of the quota system, enterprises have a strong willingness to control volumes and support prices, expecting prices to remain firm at high levels, with the mainstream range operating between 63,500 and 64,500 yuan/ton.
Fluorocarbon Refrigerant R134a: Consolidating at high levels, with opportunistic restocking during dips. On the cost side, September anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries focused on monthly orders, with domestic mainstream prices referenced at 15,050–15,200 yuan/ton delivered. Trichloroethylene (TCE) August contract pricing was set at 4,800 yuan/ton, with Shandong domestic mainstream TCE prices referenced at 4,800 yuan/ton delivered. As of the publication date, mainstream large-scale manufacturer quotations for domestic R134a are referenced near 68,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly average of 64,000 yuan/ton, remaining stable MoM. During the month, mainstream factories maintained firm high-level quotations, contrasting with gradual price declines by channel distributors, creating a "negative spread" and leading to bullish-bearish tug-of-war downstream, with fears of buying at peaks. Given the inherent scarcity of R134a supply and the ongoing negotiations for new annual contracts with automotive OEMs, the channel market retains a strong bullish sentiment, leading to necessity-driven restocking during price dips. On the supply side, August R134a production was 10,900 tons, down 3.26% MoM and significantly down 36.75% YoY. Capacity utilization was only 41.18%, slightly down 0.004 percentage points MoM. The decline in production and operating rates aligns closely with market practices of "withholding stock and reluctant selling," where factories actively control volumes to support prices, maintaining a tight spot market circulation pattern. Regarding exports, August R134a export volumes were 7,400 tons, down 24.09% MoM and 33.32% YoY. Concentrated release of export demand further exacerbated the tightness of domestic spot supplies. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream R134a manufacturer quotations will reference 68,000 yuan/ton. With the increasing penetration rate of R134a usage in new energy vehicles driving steady growth in rigid demand, coupled with continued restocking demand from the export sector, prices are expected to maintain high levels, with the mainstream range operating between 64,500 and 65,000 yuan/ton.
Fluorocarbon Refrigerant R125: Domestic trade consolidating sideways, foreign trade undergoing weak consolidation. On the cost side, September anhydrous hydrofluoric acid deliveries focused on monthly orders, with domestic mainstream prices referenced at 15,050–15,200 yuan/ton delivered. Within the month, perchloroethylene (PCE) quotations declined. As of the publication date, Shandong domestic mainstream PCE prices are referenced near 2,500–2,600 yuan/ton ex-works, with a monthly average of 2,596 yuan/ton, down 0.45% MoM. Fundamentally, current domestic mainstream large-scale manufacturer quotations for R125 are referenced at 60,000 yuan/ton, with actual transactions following suit, and a monthly average of 55,000 yuan/ton, flat MoM. On the supply side, September R125 production was 8,700 tons, up 33.15% MoM and 12.64% YoY. Capacity utilization was 39.74%, up 10.84 percentage points MoM but down 5.25% YoY. The domestic market is consolidating at high levels with firm quotations from major manufacturers. Regarding foreign trade, July R125 export volumes were only 1,200 tons, up 129.83% MoM but significantly up 37.80% YoY. External demand remains persistently weak, continuing the pattern of weak consolidation in foreign trade. Chempricehub forecasts that in the future, R125 factories are expected to maintain low-load operations, with ex-works quotations likely to remain firm. East China mainstream prices are referenced at 54,000–57,000 yuan/ton. On the domestic front, supply is tight under quota controls, providing price support. On the foreign trade front, due to slow recovery in overseas demand, short-term weak consolidation is probable, and the price differential between domestic and foreign trade markets is likely to persist.
In September, household air conditioner production scheduling was 9.75 million units, down 9.30% compared to last year's actual production and down 9.13% MoM. Domestic sales scheduling was 5.39 million units, down 5.77% compared to last year's actual domestic sales and down 8.18% MoM. For August 2025, household air conditioner export scheduling was 4.36 million units, up 13.15% compared to last year's actual exports but down 10.29% MoM.
Three-Month Outlook (October–December 2026): Domestic refrigerant operating rates are expected to gradually decline, imports will see narrow increases, and exporters will actively rush shipments during the window period while strictly controlling quota consumption progress. Household air conditioner production scheduling for October–December 2026 is expected to primarily decrease, with significant declines in export scheduling largely due to seasonal factors entering the off-season. However, October data shows a reversal towards growth, as some companies are proactively raising production plans to meet full-year performance targets, while others are reducing scheduling to manage inventory. Additionally, demand for Chinese household air conditioners from markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Japan has increased. Affected by energy efficiency upgrade policies, product prices will rise after new regulations take effect, prompting dealers to stock up in advance. Meanwhile, benefiting from the relatively low base level in the same period of 2025, the market exhibits relative growth positives. However, current production expectations have not yet reached the peak levels of 2024, and overseas markets still face certain inventory and competitive pressures. Chempricehub expects mainstream refrigerant prices to consolidate at high levels. For October 2026, the average price of R22 is forecast at approximately 21,500 yuan/ton, R32 at approximately 64,500 yuan/ton, R125 at approximately 55,000 yuan/ton, and R134a at approximately 64,000 yuan/ton.
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