[Refrigerant Weekly Review]: Fluorinated Refrigerant Market Remains Broadly Firm, with High Domestic-Export Price Spreads Persisting (Nov 6–12, 2026)

Market Logic:

① During the week, major fluorocarbon refrigerant producers in East China maintained firm quotes for both domestic and international trade, while channel markets remained cautious and watchful.

② In November 2026, the production plan for household air conditioners was set at 12.23 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.15% compared to last year’s production plan, but a month-on-month increase of 18.97%. The domestic sales production plan stood at 4.76 million units, down 6.67% year-on-year and down 8.03% month-on-month. The export production plan was 7.47 million units, up 0.20% year-on-year and up 44.21% month-on-month.

③ Market intelligence indicates that the Q4 2026 long-term contract prices for fluorocarbon refrigerants R32 and R410A have been tentatively finalized at 65,600 CNY/ton and 60,500 CNY/ton (bank acceptance), respectively.

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

This period, major fluorocarbon refrigerant R22 producers in East China maintained firm quotes for both domestic and international trade, while the market price center continued to slide. As of press time, quotes from mainstream large-scale producers in East China referenced 20,000–24,000 CNY/ton (coordinated domestic and international trade quotes); mainstream market quotes in East China referenced 17,000 CNY/ton, with the transaction center for feedstock-grade R22 referencing 13,000–14,000 CNY/ton. Demand for bulk R22 (ODS) in the domestic market has continued to shrink, channel social inventory remains high, costs are at elevated levels, and rigid demand has declined significantly. Some channel holders have been selling off inventory under pressure with gradual price reductions. Under inventory pressure, the industry operating rate for R22 (ODS + feedstock grade) stabilized at 66% (down 1 percentage point from the previous period), with weekly output at 15,200 tons, a decrease of 300 tons month-on-month. Feedstock-grade R22 prices remained relatively firm due to support from rising anhydrous hydrofluoric acid costs, and the transaction center during the export quote window shifted slightly upward. In the terminal market, both northern and southern regions have entered the off-season, causing demand to shrink substantially. Channel sentiment is predominantly bearish, with holders adjusting quotes to actively sell out, all watching official quotes from mainstream large-scale producers. In the short term, mainstream factory quotes remain firm, operating loads are low and trending downward, awaiting downstream digestion. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant factory quotes in East China will remain firm, with R22 (ODS) mainstream factory quotes referencing 20,000–24,000 CNY/ton.

This period, mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant R32 factories maintained firm quotes, controlling volume to protect prices. As of press time, quotes from mainstream large-scale producers in East China referenced 65,500 CNY/ton (coordinated domestic and international trade quotes); mainstream market quotes in East China referenced 63,500–64,500 CNY/ton. Influenced by month-on-month increases in terminal production plans, year-on-year contractions, and fading industry demand, R32 long-term contract pricing saw narrow upward exploration. The spot market has remained firmly flat over the long term, while channel markets experienced gradual price declines as traders took profits. Regarding exports, R32 monthly exports totaled 4,354.17 tons, up 70.10% month-on-month but down 34.29% year-on-year, with cumulative year-on-year exports down 53.13%. The export trend exhibits characteristics of "shrinking volume and rising prices," reflecting a tight global supply situation under quota constraints. Logistics channels partially cleared between the end of Q2 and Q3 2026, allowing previously backlogged orders to be fulfilled in concentrated bursts during August and September. The near-term outlook involves a pulse-like rebound driven by the restoration of shipping rhythms and phased restocking, while weaker cumulative year-on-year figures result from structural demand contraction. Statistics show that the R32 industry operating rate stabilized at 42% (down 6 percentage points from the previous period), with weekly output at 3,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons month-on-month. Balancing limited demand space is considered a superior strategy to maintaining high operating rates and accumulating inventory. Market intelligence indicates that the price center for blended fluorocarbon refrigerant R410A dropped significantly due to demand drag, with this week's average price at 59,500 CNY/ton and channels experiencing gradual price declines. Chempricehub forecasts that R32 ex-factory quotes will reference 65,500 CNY/ton (coordinated domestic and international trade quotes), and R410A ex-factory quotes will reference 59,500 CNY/ton.

This period, mainstream large-scale fluorocarbon refrigerant R134a producers in East China maintained firm quotes, though market transactions were somewhat sluggish, with low-price inventory largely cleared. As of press time, mainstream large-scale producer quotes in East China referenced 65,000–68,000 CNY/ton (coordinated domestic and international trade), while mainstream market quotes referenced 63,500–65,000 CNY/ton (ex-factory tax-inclusive). On the supply side, R134a weekly output was 3,700 tons, an increase of 600 tons month-on-month, making it the only one among the four mainstream models to see a month-on-month recovery in output; the operating rate was 53.64%. Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) are producing according to contracted schedules. According to statistics from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), sales in the Chinese New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market reached 1.822 million units in September 2026, up 10.9% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 61.6%, maintaining a high level. Specifically, NEV passenger car sales were 1.698 million units (up 12.0% year-on-year), and NEV commercial vehicle sales were 125,000 units (up 41.8% year-on-year). Chempricehub forecasts that the short-term R134a market will maintain a wait-and-see game between supply and demand; given limited spot volume releases, prices are likely to remain flat at high levels, with ex-factory quotes referencing 65,000–68,000 CNY/ton.

Key Points to Watch Next Period:

1. Mainstream fluorocarbon refrigerant contract pricing in East China is expected to explore slight upward trends.
2. Operating loads at mainstream large-scale fluorocarbon refrigerant facilities in East China are expected to remain weakly stable.
3. Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid quotes are expected to remain firm.
4. Terminal production plans for November are expected to show increased volumes.