Ethylene Tar Market Prices Remain Largely Stable (November 6–12, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

① Reports indicate new progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, with the U.S. downplaying expectations of resuming military strikes against Iran, thereby easing concerns over supply risks.

② The U.S. continues to state that it will not resume attacks on Iran in the short term, further alleviating supply risk concerns.

③ Core differences between the U.S. and Iran remain difficult to bridge, and the prospects for peace talks are unclear, leaving the Middle East situation unstable.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Ethylene Tar Market Overview:
Domestic ethylene tar prices fluctuated within a narrow range this week, with trading activity primarily driven by rigid demand. On the supply side, falling crude oil prices weakened support for ethylene tar. Demand showed clear differentiation: end-user demand in the carbon black industry remained weak, leading to cautious procurement; however, rigid demand for coating pitch provided some support for high-quality inventory. Competitive pressure from high-temperature coal tar, whose auction prices declined, dragged down the ethylene tar market. Additionally, lower international crude oil prices reduced cost-floor support. Market sentiment is heavily weighted towards wait-and-see attitudes. Prices are expected to decline slightly next week, though the magnitude of the drop may be limited.

3. Statistics Table: Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:
International crude oil prices are expected to face downward pressure next week. WTI is projected to trade between $80–$89/barrel, and Brent between $86–$95/barrel. The core logic behind this forecast is that mediators such as Qatar continue to push for U.S.-Iran negotiations, while the U.S. downplays the likelihood of resuming strikes on Iran. This eases supply risk concerns and weakens geopolitical support for oil prices.

Key factors to watch:

1. Supply: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, and Houthi forces continue to attack Saudi targets, maintaining uncertainty on the supply side.
2. Demand: Geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East continue to weigh on crude demand expectations. Refinery operating rates in parts of Asia remain low, and Russian refineries are operating at low loads due to Ukrainian attacks. Institutions generally view demand prospects as weak, with little likely improvement in Q4.
3. Geopolitics: Signs of U.S.-Iran negotiations have eased market anxiety, but the U.S. has not ruled out resuming strikes on Iran, meaning potential upside risks for oil prices remain. Additionally, Houthi forces continue to disrupt Red Sea shipping. Overall, the geopolitical situation remains unstable.
4. Financial Factors: There is a higher probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December. Before December, USD impacts on oil prices may be relatively limited, but policy signals from Fed officials need continuous monitoring.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast:
Looking ahead, raw material coal tar prices are trending downward, creating persistent negative cost-side pressure. With general downstream demand, procurement enthusiasm is declining, characterized mainly by small-order purchases. Consequently, market prices are expected to maintain a downward trend.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast:
The high-temperature coal tar market is expected to continue its downtrend next period. Key factors include:

1. Supply: Although coking plant profits have improved significantly, they have not yet turned positive. Combined with environmental regulations, operating rates have decreased rather than increased, leading to a slight reduction in high-temperature coal tar supply.
2. Demand: Deep processing and carbon black production have entered a stable phase, so rigid demand for coal tar from downstream plants persists.
3. Sentiment: As prices fall, the "buy on rise, avoid buying on fall" psychology dominates, resulting in strong price-negotiation pressure from downstream buyers.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast:
The domestic marine fuel oil market is expected to adjust weakly. Main components for marine fuel face strong downside expectations, and wholesalers may continue cutting prices to stimulate orders. Wholesale prices for 180 CST are likely to fluctuate downwards, causing the national weekly average price to decline month-on-month. For the next period, the mainstream ex-tank wholesale transaction price for 180 CST nationwide is estimated at 7,000–7,300 CNY/ton. Mainstream ship-supply transaction prices for National VI Diesel are estimated at 9,500–10,000 CNY/ton, and for light marine fuel oil at 9,500–10,000 CNY/ton.

Next Period Ethylene Tar Market Forecast:
On the cost side, weakening crude oil prices reduce floor support. On the substitute product front, falling high-temperature coal tar prices compress price differentials and intensify downstream price negotiation pressure. Supply remains stable with no significant changes in existing unit operating rates. On the demand side, losses in the carbon black sector are unlikely to improve soon. While there is some rigid demand for coating pitch, its supportive effect is limited. Overall, mainstream ethylene tar prices are expected to face downward pressure next week, with a higher likelihood of discounts to facilitate shipments.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.