Ethylene Tar Market Dominated by Downtrend (October 1–8, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus for the Week

① The G7 plans to release emergency fuel reserves without restricting oil exports, easing supply concerns.
② The United States stated that channels for dialogue and negotiation with Iran remain open, calming market anxiety.
③ Ongoing communication via US-Iran negotiation channels, combined with potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, has placed pressure on oil prices.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Current Market Status of Ethylene Tar:

• Cost Side: International crude oil prices declined, leading to a drop in average costs; cost support is limited.
• Supply Side: Yangzi Petrochemical has resumed normal shipments, increasing domestic supply. However, due to the trend toward lighter feedstocks, the overall supply remains tight.
• Demand Side: Downstream plant operating rates are currently low, resulting in limited procurement of ethylene tar, which is largely restricted to essential demand.
• Substitute Products: High-temperature coal tar prices dropped significantly before the holiday. Downstream buying sentiment has recovered slightly, with some restocking activity observed, but the market remains predominantly wait-and-see.

Summary: Overall, positive drivers within the market are limited, and industry sentiment is relatively negative. Consequently, ethylene tar trends have weakened, and prices have fallen.

3. Statistics Table for Ethylene Tar and Related Markets

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cost Forecast:

According to Chempricehub data monitoring, as of the 8th, Sinopec's naphtha ex-factory price for October 2026 is expected to adjust to 6,659 CNY/ton, an increase of 69 CNY/ton from the previous month.

International oil prices are expected to see slight upside next week, with WTI likely ranging between $85–91/barrel and Brent between $97–103/barrel. The core logic behind this forecast is that US-Iran negotiations have made no substantial progress, with both sides maintaining hardline military and diplomatic postures. Geopolitical conflict risks show no signs of easing, and tightness on the supply side continues to provide bottom support for oil prices.

Downstream Carbon Black Forecast:

Looking ahead, new orders in the raw material coal tar market are expected to rebound from low levels, injecting momentum into the cost side. Additionally, demand is gradually recovering, introducing positive factors that will drive the carbon black market toward a stronger trend.

High-Temperature Coal Tar Forecast:

It is expected that after the holiday, the domestic high-temperature coal tar market will face conflicting bullish and bearish factors. While downstream buyers have some restocking sentiment, deep processing units are entering their maintenance season, reducing essential demand for coal tar. However, if prices are reasonable, purchasing sentiment will remain stable, and supply-demand balance will stay tight. Furthermore, improved performance expectations for downstream products during maintenance periods will boost the raw material coal tar market. Overall, the post-holiday coal tar market is expected to initially dip as prices normalize, but a rebound cannot be ruled out, indicating a gradually strengthening operational trend.

Fuel Oil Market Forecast:

Next period, international crude oil prices may rise slightly. Shortages and high prices persist for marine fuel feedstocks and finished products. Wholesale prices for 180 CST remain in a stalemate, with the national weekly average rising marginally compared to the previous week. It is estimated that the mainstream wholesale delivery price for 180 CST nationwide will be 6,850–7,000 CNY/ton; the mainstream bunkering price for National VI Standard 0# diesel will be 9,600–9,900 CNY/ton; and the mainstream bunkering price for light marine fuel oil will be 9,600–9,800 CNY/ton.

Ethylene Tar Market Forecast for Next Period:

Next week, international crude oil prices may rise, providing some positive support for ethylene tar. Yangzi Petrochemical has begun releasing larger volumes, while the Yantai Wanhua ethylene unit is scheduled for maintenance next week. However, the reduction in supply will not offset the increase, so the tight supply trend is expected to ease slightly. Regarding substitute products, downstream buyers in the high-temperature coal tar market have some restocking sentiment, but the market remains in consolidation, offering limited support to ethylene tar. Overall, positive information in the market is limited, and ethylene tar is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term.

For more detailed weekly market analysis, please refer to the Chempricehub Ethylene Tar Weekly Report.