Ethylene oxide prices remain stable.

1. Today's Summary

1. Nov 12: The outlook for US-Iran relations remains uncertain, and market concerns regarding supply risks persist, driving international crude oil prices higher. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $88.74/bbl, up $2.21/bbl (+2.55%); ICE Brent futures (January contract) closed at $95.82/bbl, up $3.06/bbl (+3.30%). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2701) fell by 11.8 to 595.9 CNY/bbl during the day session, then rose by 14.6 to 610.5 CNY/bbl in the night session.

2. Nov 12: Port ethylene USD CFR Northeast Asia quotes stood at $1,240/ton, down from the previous business day.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Ethylene oxide (EO) prices remained stable today. On the supply side, factory shipments were primarily driven by contract orders, with a steady supply pace; the overall market supply maintained a tight balance. On the demand side, key downstream industries showed weak demand, with limited new transactions dominated by rigid requirements. On the cost side, domestic ethylene producers faced no pressure to sell externally, leading to increased market pessimism and cautious buying, which resulted in a slight downward adjustment in ethylene prices. Overall, tight supply provided some support for the EO market, keeping prices stable for now. Continued attention should be paid to developments in both upstream and downstream sectors.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese ethylene oxide industry was 54.17%. As of the previous business day, the theoretical profit for EO produced using imported ethylene was 670.09 CNY/ton. The theoretical profit for EO produced using domestically sourced ethylene was 262.5 CNY/ton today, unchanged from the previous period.

4. Price Forecast

Ethylene oxide prices are expected to remain stable. On the supply side, the ethylene glycol (MEG) market is relatively strong, prompting co-production units to prioritize MEG production. Domestic EO plants are operating steadily, maintaining stable supply. On the demand side, the downstream market is purchasing mainly based on rigid requirements, with cautious sentiment and prevailing wait-and-see attitudes. On the cost side, domestic ethylene producers in East China face little pressure to sell spot volumes externally. However, available circulating resources outside the region have increased at lower prices, fostering a wait-and-see mood within the market. Consequently, domestic ethylene prices may decline slightly. Overall, there is currently no clear directional guidance from supply and demand fundamentals for EO, and cost support is limited. Prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term, with continued monitoring of upstream and downstream changes required.

5. Related Products Status

① Ethylene (Raw Material): Producers face little external sales pressure, and available circulating supplies have increased. Ethylene prices remain high, resulting in heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Domestic ethylene prices are expected to trend slightly weaker while remaining generally stable. Mainstream negotiated prices in East China are expected to hold around 10,000 CNY/ton, while Shandong mainstream prices are projected at 9,800–10,000 CNY/ton. In terms of USD pricing, shipping markets remain tight, supporting firm USD quotes. The USD price range is expected to be $1,200–$1,300/ton.

② Polycarboxylate Superplasticizer Monomer (Key Downstream): Domestic polycarboxylate superplasticizer monomer prices may trend weaker. EO prices may remain temporarily stable. Some units that underwent prior maintenance are expected to restart, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation in the market. Downstream buyers are engaging in rigid-demand purchases. Due to recent sluggish ethylene shipments, suppliers are facing increased sales pressure, and further price concessions cannot be ruled out, though cost-side support may provide a floor. Monomer manufacturers expect an increase in spot supply availability. Downstream players are bearish on future prospects, maintaining small-volume purchases based on immediate needs, with limited follow-up volume from new orders. Transactions are negotiated based on specific quantities.

③ Ethylene Glycol (Related Product): Regarding costs, easing geopolitical tensions leave room for crude oil prices to fall, significantly weakening cost support for MEG and leading a downward market trend. From a supply and demand perspective, domestic MEG output is expected to increase while imports decrease, resulting in limited changes in total supply. On the demand side, polyester operating rates are rising. The improving supply-demand structure provides positive support to the market, and the market is expected to continue its rebound next week.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethylene Oxide Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)