Introduction: In October, the price of polycarboxylate superplasticizer (PCE) monomers rebounded slightly after a decline, primarily supported by robust cost-side fundamentals. Additionally, maintenance shutdowns at some PCE monomer production units and a backlog of undelivered orders provided supply-side support. Entering November, the market logic for PCE monomers shifted from previous high-cost support to a bearish combination of "easing costs + off-season demand." While geopolitical tensions may still fluctuate, potentially offering brief sentiment recovery, the rebound space is expected to limited given the loosening spot supply. The price center is likely to shift downward.
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In early November, PCE monomer prices experienced a slight rise followed by a pullback. On the cost side, with the Democratic Party winning the US midterm elections, market expectations suggest a de-escalation in US-Iran conflicts. Reduced concerns over supply risks led to a drop in international crude oil prices, negatively impacting market sentiment. Ethylene oxide (EO) prices declined from highs due to expectations of increased future supply, weakening cost-side support. At the beginning of the month, Jiahua Chemical restarted its maintenance unit, while Jilin Petrochemical’s unit underwent a short shutdown. Some enterprises operated at reduced loads, keeping spot supply relatively tight and providing some floor to price declines. On the demand side, end-use construction activity slowed as the industry entered its off-season. Factory order follow-ups decelerated, and high raw material costs expanded losses for downstream producers, suppressing their procurement enthusiasm. As of November 12, the mainstream price for EPEG (a type of PCE monomer) in East China fell to 9,800–10,300 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.90% compared to late October and down 1.00% year-on-year compared to the same period in October.
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In early November, ethylene oxide (EO) prices pulled back from highs. The East China market price dropped by 600 RMB/ton from 9,700 RMB/ton to 9,100 RMB/ton, though it remained 51.67% higher than the previous year. Execution prices across various regions were adjusted downward by 500–800 RMB/ton before stabilizing. The primary drivers were:
This decline represents a regression from highs toward fundamental realities. Since short-term supply increases have not yet fully materialized, the market may remain stable and watchful in the near term. Future focus will be on unit restart schedules and restocking rhythms.
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Total domestic supply of PCE monomers in November is expected to decrease compared to October. Some units are operating at reduced loads with no clear timeline for resumption. Given the entry into the off-season, there is a possibility that other enterprises may also reduce loads. There is no obvious increase in market volume; thus, domestic production of PCE monomers in November is projected to be around 137,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.65%. Regarding inventory, as of November 12, the sellable inventory rate at domestic PCE monomer factories was -22.81%, an increase of 3.67 percentage points from the previous week. Sellable inventory volume stood at -43,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons. Enterprises are actively prioritizing the delivery of accumulated backlog orders, while new order releases are slow. Inventory levels are expected to gradually rise. Overall, although total supply in November is projected to contract, the expectation of falling prices has hindered smooth sales. Monomer holders show a strengthened willingness to discount for shipments. Consequently, the tight supply pattern is unlikely to provide effective support for prices.
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The demand side exhibits characteristics of "marginal weakening and extreme wait-and-see," placing clear pressure on prices. As temperatures drop, outdoor construction activities in the downstream building sector face obstacles, causing a noticeable slowdown in new orders for superplasticizers. As of November 12, 2026, concrete utilization rates stood at 7.32%, with shipment volumes at 1,465,945 cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.02%. Constrained by end-user consumption, new order acceptance is limited, keeping industry utilization rates at low levels. Notably, as raw material prices enter a downward channel, the "buy on rising, not on falling" psychology among downstream factories has intensified rapidly, resulting in heavy wait-and-see sentiment. End-users generally expect prices to bottom out further, showing extremely low procurement willingness and adopting strategies of buying only what is needed immediately in small batches. Overall, insufficient profit margins for downstream players combined with falling raw material prices have led to thin market trading activity.
Based on an analysis of cost, supply, and demand factors, the PCE monomer market is highly likely to maintain a weak trend in mid-to-late November.
Cost Support May Be Limited. Against the backdrop of easing geopolitical issues, international oil prices remain under pressure. However, crude oil fundamentals are relatively strong, with low petroleum inventories providing some floor support. Expectations of increased circulating supply in the ethylene market may lead to a decline in ethylene prices from highs, limiting cost-side boosts. With some previously maintained EO units expected to resume, supply within the market may increase. Fundamentals currently lack obvious positive catalysts, suggesting short-term prices may remain stable or cautious.
Supply Outlook Shifts to "Tight Near-Term, Loose Later." Although PCE monomer production in November is expected to contract overall, there are no new scheduled maintenance shutdowns. Simultaneously, amid weak demand and insufficient raw material support, the pricing power derived from low inventory holdings diminishes. Operations to offer discounts to facilitate transactions will increase, marginally weakening supply-side support for prices.
Demand is the Core Constraint, with Downward Pressure Becoming More Prominent. Seasonally, as temperatures fall comprehensively in northern regions in mid-to-late November, the end-use construction sector enters its off-season. Utilization rates are expected to continue declining, reducing essential consumption of raw materials. Furthermore, against the backdrop of weak market expectations, risk-aversion among downstream factories will persist, solidifying the "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality. End-users will maintain extremely low inventory turnover, halting bulk stockpiling, and even delaying some essential purchases in anticipation of lower entry points. Without demand support, prices lack the momentum for a rebound.
Comprehensive Judgment: In the second half of the month, PCE monomer prices are highly likely to exhibit a trend of "weak operation and downward shift in price center." In the short term, overall tight supply can prevent rapid deep declines, but insufficient cost support and weak demand will continue to suppress prices. Key indicators to monitor include changes in geopolitical situations, monomer enterprise inventory levels, and downstream factory restocking rhythms.
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