Oct 26: Mediators continue to push for US-Iran peace talks, slightly easing market concerns over supply risks, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI crude futures (December contract) closed at $101.76/bbl, down $1.51/bbl (-1.46% WoW); ICE Brent crude futures (December contract) closed at $115.81/bbl, down $0.91/bbl (-0.78% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) rose by CNY 22.7 to CNY 739.7/bbl during the day session, then fell by CNY 6.4 to CNY 733.3/bbl in the night session.
On Oct 26, far-month RMB-denominated prices surged significantly, providing support to the USD-denominated market, which closed higher intraday. FOB Korea settled at $1,498–1,508/ton, with an average price increase of $30; CFR China settled at $1,438–1,448/ton, with an average price increase of $30. Unit: USD/ton.
On Oct 26, theoretically compared to the previous trading day: Theoretical production and sales profit for integrated plants increased by CNY 497 to CNY 2,697/ton; theoretical production and sales loss for non-integrated plants narrowed by CNY 227 to -CNY 43/ton.
Core Logic: Crude oil prices remained stable at high levels, styrene futures fluctuated downward from highs, and basis weakened.
| Product | Region | Oct 23 | Oct 26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent Dec | 116.72 | 115.81 | -0.91 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1190 | 1190 | 0 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 10550 | 10820 | +270 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 11520 | 11960 | +440 |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Brent crude: USD/bbl; CFR NE Asia ethylene: USD/ton; Pure benzene & Styrene: CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for pure benzene and styrene are closing averages of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot exchange rates including tax. | ||||
| 4. Change rate is the week-on-week percentage change. |
Styrene: Crude oil prices remain stable at high levels, while styrene futures fluctuate downward from highs, and the basis has weakened. Supply and demand maintain a tight balance. Shell's styrene plant has resumed operations, but partial maintenance shutdowns at Zhejiang Petrochemical have prevented any significant short-term recovery in industry supply. After Lianyungang Petrochemical restarts its unit, supply may enter an upward trend. Recently, downstream demand has been generally weak, price transmission to end-users faces obstacles, new orders are under pressure, and spot demand shows no obvious improvement. Without further positive catalysts, styrene prices may trend slightly lower amid fluctuations in the short term.
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory (10k tons) | 3.31 | 2.47 | 25.38% | ↘ |
| South China Port Inventory (10k tons) | 4.3 | 3.3 | -23.26% | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 64.44% | 63.46% | -0.98% | ↘ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 15.02 | 13.3 | -11.45% | ↘ |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. All data in the table are weekly styrene data; ↘ indicates decrease, ↗ indicates increase. | ||||
| 2. Styrene Jiangsu port inventory is released before 15:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 3. Styrene East China port inventory is released before 17:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the current week. | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the current week. |
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