I. Key Points
Oct 30: Market focus shifted to the potential escalation of US-Iran tensions, with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia exacerbating supply risks, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $104.12/bbl, up $2.12/bbl (+2.08% WoW); ICE Brent futures (December contract) closed at $117.64/bbl, up $2.76/bbl (+2.40% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (contract 2612) fell by 8.3 to 727.6 yuan/bbl during the day session, but rose by 30.9 to 758.5 yuan/bbl in the night session.
Oct 30: Driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, the RMB exchange rate trended upward, and the USD-denominated market closed higher for the day. FOB Korea closed at $1,480–$1,490/ton, with an average price increase of $43; CFR China closed at $1,420–$1,430/ton, with an average price increase of $43. Unit: USD/ton.
Oct 30: Theoretically compared to the previous trading day: Integrated production enterprises saw their theoretical production-sales profit decrease by 124 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton; Non-integrated production enterprises saw their theoretical production-sales loss increase by 66 yuan/ton to -173 yuan/ton.
Core Logic: Port arrivals may be concentrated recently, potentially leading to inventory buildup. Downstream demand remains generally weak, facing obstacles in price transmission downward. New orders are under pressure, and spot demand shows no significant improvement.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Oct 29 | Oct 30 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | Brent Dec | 114.88 | 117.64 | +2.76 |
| Ethylene | CFR NE Asia | 1230 | 1230 | 0 |
| Pure Benzene | East China Market | 10235 | 10065 | -170 |
| Styrene | Jiangsu Market | 11310 | 11360 | +50 |
| Remarks: | ||||
| 1. Brent Crude: USD/barrel; Ethylene CFR NE Asia: USD/ton; Pure Benzene & Styrene: CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices for Pure Benzene and Styrene represent the closing average of mainstream markets. | ||||
| 3. All RMB prices in the table above are spot rates including tax. | ||||
| 4. Change rate refers to the week-over-week percentage change. |
III. Market Outlook
Styrene: Last Friday, crude oil consolidated at high levels, while styrene fluctuated with a bullish bias, and the inter-month spread widened. Supply and demand maintained a tight balance. Restart times for some units were delayed, indicating no clear signs of short-term industry supply recovery. However, recent port arrivals may be concentrated, potentially leading to inventory buildup. Downstream demand remains generally weak, facing obstacles in price transmission downward. New orders are under pressure, and spot demand shows no significant improvement. In the short term, styrene is likely to fluctuate at high levels with a slightly lower center of gravity.
IV. Data Table
| Data Type | Previous Period | Current Period | Change Rate | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiangsu Port Inventory (10k tons) | 3.31 | 2.47 | -25.38% | ↘ |
| South China Port Inventory (10k tons) | 4.3 | 3.3 | -23.26% | ↘ |
| Operating Rate | 62.8% | 61.81% | -0.99% | ↗ |
| Sample Enterprise Inventory | 13.45 | 13.52 | +0.52% | ↘ |
| Remarks: | ||||
| 1. All data in the table are weekly styrene data; ↘ indicates decline, ↗ indicates increase. | ||||
| 2. Styrene Jiangsu port inventory is released before 15:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 3. Styrene East China port inventory is released before 17:00 on Monday of the current week. | ||||
| 4. Styrene operating rate is released before 18:00 on Thursday of the current week. | ||||
| 5. Styrene sample enterprise inventory is released before 17:00 on Thursday of the current week. |
Comments
0