Domestic ethanol prices remain stable.

1. Daily Summary

① Ethanol prices in the Jilin region of Northeast China remained stable;
② Prices in the Heilongjiang region of Northeast China remained stable;
③ Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable, with transactions driven by rigid demand;
④ Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable, with short-term shutdowns at some units;
⑤ Ethanol prices in East China remained stable;
⑥ Delivered prices for downstream chemical use in Shandong remained stable;
⑦ Downstream refineries in Shandong made sporadic purchases.

2. Spot Market Overview

Table 1: Domestic Ethanol Price Summary (Unit: CNY/ton)

Daily Commentary: Using the Heilongjiang region as a benchmark, 95% ethanol closed today at 5,150–5,300 CNY/ton. Prices in Jilin and Heilongjiang remained stable. Shipments were fulfilled according to contract orders, with delivery conditions becoming slightly more relaxed. Factory prices for fuel ethanol remained stable but weak; some factories adopted an aggressive sales mindset, offering small quantities at lower prices. Downstream demand was weak, leading to increased inventory levels at some plants. Premium-grade ethanol prices in Henan remained stable; the Xinxiang unit was shut down, while short-term shutdowns at some Mengzhou units have resumed. Ethanol prices in East China remained stable, with transactions driven by rigid demand. Coal-based ethanol prices remained stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders and inventory levels remaining low. Delivered prices for downstream chemical use in Shandong remained stable, while other procurement activities were sporadic.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the domestic ethanol capacity utilization rate held steady at 47.88%. For edible ethanol production, operating facilities included Hongzhan in Heilongjiang, Zhongke Green, Shenglong, Wanli Ethanol, Dongfeng in Jilin, Fukang, Yushu, Xintianlong, Baiyecheng in Inner Mongolia, Hanyong in Henan, Huaxing, Houyuan, Hongzhan in Sichuan, Qufeng in Shandong, Huating in East China, Wanshen in Anhui, COFCO Fuel in Anhui, COFCO Zhaodong, Guotou Jidong, Hailun Bio, and Tieling. Facilities currently shut down include those in the Xinxiang area, Longhe in East China, Xinguan in Guannan, and Romait. Today, the theoretical profit margin for 95% corn ethanol in Heilongjiang stood at 250.35 CNY/ton.

4. Price Forecast

Domestic ethanol market prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will stay steady, supported by previous order backlogs. Prices in East China are expected to remain stable but weak, as downstream chemical users primarily consume coal-based ethanol delivered at lower prices, limiting the consumption of local supply. Supply from Xinxiang in Henan has decreased, which supports price trends in the Mengzhou area. Coal-based ethanol prices are expected to remain stable, with shipments fulfilling contract orders and no significant inventory pressure on factories. Fuel ethanol prices are expected to remain stable; although downstream demand is poor, factories show little willingness to cut prices.

5. Related Products

1. Dried Cassava Chips: On November 11, FOB Bangkok quotes for Thai dried cassava chips were USD 240–245/ton; CNF quotes for Vietnamese dried cassava chips were USD 245/ton.
2. Corn: Prices in major production areas are expected to remain high and stable, with quotes across Northeast China likely to hold flat.
3. Ethyl Acetate: The market price for ethyl acetate in East China fell by 50 CNY/ton, trading at 6,450–6,600 CNY/ton ex-works (cash settlement). The weakening trend in raw material acetic acid drove the decline in ethyl acetate.

6. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Ethanol Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons)