Lead-in: This week, the East China acrylic acid market trended upward with fluctuations, posting a significant price increase compared to last week. Volatility in upstream propylene prices provided cost support, while plant maintenance reduced supply, prompting producers to maintain firm pricing. However, downstream procurement remained weak, characterized only by intermittent concentrated restocking, highlighting the intense bargaining dynamics in the market.
International geopolitical instability drove crude oil prices higher. Additionally, multiple PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) plants halted operations, maintaining pressure on the supply side. Consequently, the Shandong propylene market price stabilized briefly before rising sharply. As of October 30, the mainstream closing reference price was 12,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 12,000 yuan/ton. The overall rise in propylene prices directly increased production costs for acrylic acid, providing strong cost support. During the week, propylene prices first corrected and then rebounded, driving synchronous fluctuations and increases in raw material costs for acrylic acid.
| Figure 1: 2026 Domestic Acrylic Acid and Ester Cost Statistics Chart (Yuan/Ton) | Figure 2: 2025-2026 Domestic Acrylic Acid Price Trend Charts by Region (Yuan/Ton) |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub | Data Source: Chempricehub |
In summary, the propylene trend this week was initially weak but strengthened later, shifting the center of gravity upwards overall. This significantly boosted the cost side for acrylic acid; however, cooling demand limited the actual transaction price increases.
On the supply side, several acrylic acid units underwent maintenance this week. Shandong Qixiang suspended full operations for maintenance, Tianjin Bohua shut down one unit, and Jiangsu Shengke restarted after a short maintenance period. Overall industry operating rates declined. Facing cost pressures, producers maintained firm quotations, resulting in a market where both high and low-priced goods coexisted. On the demand side, downstream buyers concentrated their purchases on Monday, leading to good transactions that day. However, subsequent follow-up purchasing lacked momentum, with most activity consisting of small-lot replenishments driven by rigid demand. Cost pressures from rising raw material prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in moderate trading activity.
| Figure 3: 2025-2026 Domestic Acrylic Acid Capacity Utilization Rate Trend Chart |
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| Data Source: Chempricehub |
In summary, the contraction in supply benefited the market this week, but insufficient sustainability in demand meant that transactions were dominated by small-lot rigid needs, offering limited stimulus to market trends.
Cost Side: International crude oil prices have room to rise next week. While the risk of large-scale conflict in the Middle East has subsided in the short term, friction between the US and Iran and threats in the Red Sea persist. Recurring geopolitical risks provide strong bottom support for oil prices. Propylene is likely to experience a brief rebound at highs before continuing to rise. The strong pattern on the cost side for acrylic acid will continue, with cost support becoming increasingly robust.
Supply Side: Start-ups and shutdowns of acrylic acid units are diverging. Some units are scheduled to restart, while some producers may choose to extend shutdown periods. Industry capacity utilization rates are expected to recover slightly within a narrow range. Factories and traders, under cost pressure, remain willing to hold prices firm. If inventory accumulation occurs, the market may continue to exhibit a mix of high and low prices.
Demand Side: Continuous bullishness in upstream raw materials further raises costs for downstream users. Downstream purchasing pace is expected to slow further, with transactions remaining dominated by small-lot rigid demand. Resistance to high prices is unlikely to dissipate quickly, making significant volume expansion in demand difficult.
Overall Outlook: In the short term, the acrylic acid market is expected to operate strongly. Strong cost-side support persists, while supply-side maintenance and restarts offset each other. Producers' willingness to hold prices supports quotations. However, weak downstream demand follow-through makes it difficult to drive high-volume transactions. The focus of negotiations may trend upward amid fluctuations. Key factors to monitor include cost-side dynamics, factory operating rates, and downstream demand.
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