Introduction: During the National Day holiday, DOP capacity utilization remained at 51%, a significant year-on-year decline compared to 2025. Prior to the holiday, DOP producers actively shipped goods to clear inventory, while end-users maintained appropriate stockpiling based on rigid demand.
As of September 30, the delivered market price for DOP in Jiangsu Province (hereinafter referred to as "Jiangsu") was 10,500 RMB/ton, an increase of 700 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month. The monthly high reached 10,800 RMB/ton, marking a new annual peak with a monthly fluctuation range of 10.20%.
In the first half of the month, rising crude oil and propylene prices boosted buyer sentiment in the DOP market. Major manufacturers generally controlled shipment volumes, supporting price increases driven by trading activity. Prices rose steadily from an opening level of 9,800 RMB/ton to 10,800 RMB/ton (delivered). However, at these high levels, end-user procurement became cautious, primarily relying on existing order inventories, leading to weak follow-through in market transactions. Combined with falling crude oil prices, DOP market trends peaked and began to retreat. During the downturn, buying interest was low, with traders frequently engaging in short-selling operations, causing rapid price corrections. Approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, DOP factories proactively offered discounts to facilitate shipments, stabilizing prices around 10,200 RMB/ton. Subsequently, end-users gradually replenished stocks for pre-holiday preparation, and traders covered their short positions. This renewed market activity led to a rebound in prices.
From July to August, the DOP market operated largely at a loss, prompting multiple units to reduce production. By late August, losses slightly narrowed, and the operation of DOP units stabilized, with daily capacity utilization fluctuating between 54% and 56%. Around the National Day holiday, some units shut down, causing capacity utilization to drop into a range of 45–52%. It is estimated that capacity utilization during the holiday period stood at approximately 51%.
| Product | 2026 | 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Output (10k tons) | 2.32 | 2.80 | -17.14% |
| Capacity Utilization | 51% | 62% | -11 percentage points |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
DOP output during the 2026 National Day holiday was approximately 23,200 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons or 17.14% compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the Nanjing Libang unit halted operations before the holiday and plans to restart afterwards. Additionally, maintenance schedules for Haiyou, Hongbo, and Weibo units are planned for after the holiday. Operations are expected to recover to around 51% capacity utilization by mid-month. Furthermore, progress on the commissioning of Xiangda and Lingchuang units should be monitored in October.
During the combined Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday period, traders executed buy-back transactions to cover short positions. Some end-use industries had export orders and conducted moderate pre-holiday stockpiling. DOP factories also secured export orders. Mainstream factories focused on clearing inventory before the holiday, which helped alleviate initial supply pressure during the break. However, domestic demand orders from small and medium-sized end-user enterprises showed no improvement. These users experienced staggered shutdowns during the holiday, meaning their stockpiling remained primarily driven by rigid demand.
On the cost side, raw material 2-EH (2-ethylhexanol) prices are currently close to cost lines, compressing industry profits and providing support for market prices, which are temporarily stable. The phthalic anhydride market shows clear differentiation: Naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride is supported by oversold cargo conditions and unit maintenance, creating upward price expectations; whereas Ortho-xylene-based phthalic anhydride faces expectations of increased supply, potentially weighing on prices. Regarding supply, although producers cleared inventory before the holiday, post-holiday market dynamics will depend on the pace of unit restarts and maintenance completions. Demand remains constrained by weak domestic orders from SMEs, suggesting that market recovery may be gradual rather than sharp.
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