Does Russia's gasoline export ban really move global prices?

Does Russia's gasoline export ban really move global prices?
Russia is a major crude exporter but a minor gasoline one. Its gasoline exports run about 100,000-120,000 bpd, roughly 5 million tonnes a year, under 2% of global seaborne gasoline trade. Over 80% goes to CIS states, Central Europe, Turkey and parts of Africa; Mongolia and Belarus depend on it for more than 95% of imports, while the US and major Asian consumers barely buy it. So a ban is a regional shock, not a global one. The real leverage is crude: Russia ships about 4.3 million bpd, over 40 times its gasoline volume. Domestic refinery outages from drone strikes, not export policy, are what tighten its own market.