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Ethanol Market Morning Update

Published on 2026-10-10

Ethanol and Fuel Ethanol Market Report

I. Key Focus Points

  1. October 9: The US and Iran indicated that negotiations are ongoing, easing market concerns. However, hurricane disruptions continued to suppress US crude oil production, leading to a rise in international oil prices.
    • NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures (Nov contract): $91.85/bbl, up $0.36/bbl (+0.39% QoQ).
    • ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures (Dec contract): $104.72/bbl, up $0.44/bbl (+0.42% QoQ).
    • China INE Crude Oil Futures (Nov '26 contract): Day session rose by 3.9 yuan to 741.3 yuan/bbl; Night session fell by 1.5 yuan to 739.8 yuan/bbl.

Core Logic:

  1. Food-grade Ethanol: Yesterday, regional food-grade ethanol prices fluctuated due to plant adjustments, but overall remained stable.
  2. Anhydrous Ethanol: Yesterday, anhydrous ethanol prices remained stable across regions.
  3. Fuel Ethanol: Yesterday, fuel ethanol prices trended downward. Refinery purchase prices experienced volatile declines.
  4. Coal-based Ethanol: Yesterday, coal-based ethanol offers increased.

II. Price List

Unit: Yuan/ton, USD/barrel

Product Region Oct 9, 2026 Oct 8, 2026 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 91.85 91.49 +0.36
Brent 104.72 104.28 +0.44
Domestic Gasoline Guideline Price (89#) Shandong 8475 8475 -
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 245-245 245-245 - FOB, USD/ton
Landed Cost Equivalent East China 1993-1993 1993-1993 - Yuan/ton
Corn (Plant Intake) Heilongjiang 1988-2037 1988-2037 - Heilongjiang
Jilin 2090-2160 2090-2160 - Jilin
Henan 2120-2150 2160-2180 -40/-30 Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2190-2190 2180-2180 +10/+10 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 4900-5100 4900-5100 - Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 5080-5150 5080-5150 - Corn-based
Jilin 5130-5220 5130-5220 - Corn-based
Shandong - - - Cassava, ex-factory
Shandong 5500-5550 5500-5550 - Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5700-5700 5700-5700 - Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5700-5750 5700-5750 - Cassava, ex-factory
Anhui 5700-5750 5700-5750 - Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5700-5800 5700-5800 - Molasses/Cassava
Premium Grade Ethanol Heilongjiang 5000-5150 5000-5150 - East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5250-5450 5250-5450 - Corn-based
Shandong 5550-5600 5550-5600 - Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5750-5750 5750-5750 -
Henan 5550-5590 5550-5590 - Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (General) 5700-5850 5700-5850 - Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5950-6000 5950-6000 - Corn-based
Jilin (General) 5850-5900 5850-5900 - Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5920-5950 5920-5950 - Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (General) 6200-6250 6250-6250 -50/0 Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) 6300-6300 6300-6300 - Corn-based, no inventory currently
Northern Jiangsu 6450-6500 6450-6500 - Cassava-based
Anhui 6400-6450 6400-6450 - Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6500-6600 6500-6600 - Cassava-based
Port Prices Jinzhou Port 5450-5500 5450-5500 - Standard grade, corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5800-6087 5800-6129 0/-42 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Heilongjiang (West) 5800-6087 5800-6129 0/-42 High-end price is delivered to Heilongjiang
Liaoning 6000-6317 6000-6426 0/-109 Delivered price to Liaoning
Jilin 6237-6237 6240-6349 -3/-112 Delivered price to Jilin
Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered) - - -
Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered) 6020-6020 6030-6050 -10/-30 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5765 5750 +15 Online starting bid price
Anhui Starting Bid 6010 6010 - Online starting bid price
Henan General 6100 6100 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Henan High-end - - - Plant shutdown
Shandong 6200 6180 +20 Plant shutdown
Hunan 6050 6050 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Hebei 6300 6300 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Hubei 6100 6100 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong 6550 6550 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Ethyl Acetate East China (Self-pickup) 6900-7120 6700-6820 +200/+300
MTBE Shandong (Self-pickup) 8330-8360 8150-8330 +180/+30
DDGS Heilongjiang 2180-2210 2180-2210 -
Jilin 2230-2280 2230-2280 -
Henan 2300-2300 2300-2300 -
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang to Shandong 460-500 460-500 - Standard grade ethanol
Henan to Shandong 100-200 100-200 -
East Heilongjiang to Shandong 400-440 400-440 - Standard grade ethanol
Northwest to Shandong 270-310 270-310 -
Mengzhou to Chengdu 360-390 360-390 - Return empty trucks offer cheaper rates

III. Data Table

Unit: Yuan/ton

Data Type This Week Last Week Forecast for Current Period
Cassava Ethanol Profit -518.8 -518.8 ↗
Corn Ethanol Profit -138.75 -138.75 ↗
Coal-based Ethanol Profit 300 300 ↗

Remarks:

  1. Cassava ethanol profit refers to the production margin for cassava ethanol in the Northern Jiangsu/East China market.
  2. Corn ethanol profit refers to the production margin for corn ethanol in the Northeast Heilongjiang market.
  3. Molasses ethanol profit refers to the production margin for molasses ethanol in the Southern market.

IV. Market Outlook

Domestic ethanol prices are expected to exhibit regional trends in the short term. Prices in Northeast China will remain stable, with potential increases for certain grades. Prices in East China will stay steady, while chemical delivery prices may see slight increases. Prices in Henan are weak due to limited downstream demand and rising inventory, with some quotes potentially declining. Coal-based ethanol prices will remain stable as shipments fulfill existing contracts, resulting in no short-term inventory pressure. Fuel ethanol prices will maintain a steady trend, with all plants reporting zero inventory.

Data Indicator Release Time Current Value Trend Forecast
Ethanol Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 59.19% ↗
Ethyl Acetate Operating Rate Thursday 15:00 PM 51.08% ↗

Remarks:

  1. ↑↓ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
  2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes within 0-3%.

Reference Data (Previous Period: Oct 28, 2025)

Product Region Oct 28, 2025 Oct 27, 2025 Change Remarks
Crude Oil WTI 60.15 61.31 -1.16
Brent 64.4 65.62 -1.22
Domestic Gasoline Guideline Price (89#) Shandong 7969 7969 -
Dried Cassava Chips Thailand 212-215 212-215 - FOB, USD/ton
Landed Cost Equivalent East China 1828-1856 1828-1856 - Yuan/ton
Corn (Plant Intake) Heilongjiang 1955-2002 1955-2002 - Heilongjiang
Jilin 2010-2090 2020-2090 -10/0 Jilin
Henan 2200-2210 2200-2210 - Jiaozuo dry grain, 14% moisture
Shandong 2170-2170 2160-2160 +10/+10 Weifang dry grain, 14% moisture
Standard Grade Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 4820-4830 4820-4830 - Corn-based
Heilongjiang (West) 4850-4900 4850-4900 - Corn-based
Jilin 4950-5050 4950-5050 - Corn-based
Shandong 5400-5400 5400-5400 - Cassava, ex-factory
Shandong 5150-5300 5150-5300 - Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5300-5300 5300-5300 - Cassava-based
Southern Jiangsu 5400-5400 5400-5400 - Cassava, ex-factory
Anhui 5350-5350 5350-5350 - Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 5650-5700 5650-5700 - Cassava-based
Premium Grade Ethanol Heilongjiang 4900-4950 4900-4950 - East/West, Corn-based
Jilin 5100-5450 5100-5450 - Corn-based
Shandong 5300-5350 5300-5350 - Wheat-based
Northern Jiangsu 5380-5380 5380-5380 -
Henan 5230-5250 5230-5250 - Corn-based
Anhydrous Ethanol Heilongjiang (General) 5400-5450 5400-5450 - Corn-based
Heilongjiang (Electronic Grade) 5450-5500 5450-5500 - Corn-based
Jilin (General) 5500-5850 5500-5850 - Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Jilin (Electronic Grade) 5650-5950 5650-5950 - Corn-based, mostly low-end transactions
Henan (General) 5900-5950 5900-5950 - Corn-based
Henan (Electronic Grade) - - - Corn-based, no inventory currently
Northern Jiangsu 5900-5900 5900-5900 - Cassava-based
Anhui 5900-5950 5900-5950 - Grain/Cassava
Guangxi 6350-6450 6350-6450 - Cassava-based
Port Prices Jinzhou Port 5100-5200 5100-5200 - Standard grade, corn-based
Fuel Ethanol Heilongjiang (East) 5200-5200 5200-5200 -
Heilongjiang (West) 5250-5250 5250-5250 -
Liaoning 5500-5500 5500-5500 -
Jilin 5400-5400 5400-5400 -
Panjin Independent Refinery (Delivered) - - -
Shandong Independent Refinery (Delivered) 5250-5250 5260-5290 -10/-40 Delivered price
Synthetic/Coal-based Ethanol Shaanxi Starting Bid 5450 5450 - Online quote
Anhui Starting Bid 5400 - - Online starting bid price
Henan General 5800 5800 - Hydrogenation of acetate esters
Henan High-end - - - Quote (Plant shut down on the 13th)
Shandong 5400 5460 -60 Quote
Hunan 5600 5600 - Quote
Hebei 5600 5600 - Quote, transaction negotiable
Guangdong - - -
Guangdong High-end 5950 6100 -150 High-end, purity 99.9%
Ethyl Acetate East China (Self-pickup) 5140-5200 5140-5200 -
MTBE Shandong (Self-pickup) 4850-4950 4900-4950 -50/0
DDGS Heilongjiang 2030-2150 2030-2150 -
Jilin 1950-2250 1950-2250 -
Henan 2330-2330 2330-2330 -
Freight Tracking West Heilongjiang to Shandong 280-300 280-300 - Standard grade ethanol
Henan to Shandong 100-200 100-200 -
East Heilongjiang to Shandong 330-370 330-370 - Fuel ethanol
Northwest to Shandong 260-270 260-270 -
Mengzhou to Chengdu 250-300 250-300 - Return empty trucks offer cheaper rates

Comments

0
  • Priya Kapoor 2026-10-10 10:02
    Hurricane-driven crude spikes are pressuring fuel ethanol margins, yet coal-based offers rising signals feedstock cost shifts. With zero inventories and weak Henan trends, capacity utilization remains key to stabilizing ..
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