I. Focus Points (highlighting cost changes, outlook for this week's supply and demand, with hot events interspersed)
Sep 9: The US-Iran conflict still shows no sign of easing. Combined with Houthi militants intensifying attacks on Saudi oil facilities, supply risks have intensified, and international crude oil prices continued to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures for October stood at 96.05, up USD 3.02/bbl, or +3.25% d/d; ICE Brent crude oil futures for November stood at 101.21, up USD 3.29/bbl, or +3.36% d/d. China's INE crude oil futures 2610 contract rose 19.2 to 722.5 yuan/bbl, and rose 50.6 to 773.1 yuan/bbl in the night session.
Propylene oxide (PO): On the previous working day, the domestic propylene oxide market rebounded and rose again. Supply-side units were mainly stable; operating plants watched the strong upward push from raw materials, with some sellers withholding cargoes for a premium, and price spreads widened in some regions. The cost side remains strong for now, while downstream demand is taking a wait-and-see stance, seeing the short-term market as more likely to rise than fall, and has been passively following up purchases. The market may still have upside expectations.
| Product | Region | Sep 8 | Sep 9 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimethyl carbonate (DMC) | Shandong | 5775 | 5825 | +0.87% |
| Dimethyl carbonate (DMC) | East China | 5800 | 5800 | 0.00% |
| Dimethyl carbonate (DMC) | South China | 6000 | 6000 | 0.00% |
| Remarks: 1. Dimethyl carbonate is industrial grade; 2. Unit: yuan/mt; 3. The RMB prices above are acceptance-bill ex-works for Shandong, acceptance-bill delivered for East China, and telegraphic-transfer delivered for South China; 4. Change rate is the day-on-day change rate. |
III. Market Outlook
| Data | Release Date | Previous Data | Expected Trend This Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| DMC weekly production | Thursday 5:00 PM | 55,100 mt | ↗ |
| Propylene oxide weekly operating rate | Thursday 5:00 PM | 58.66% | ↘ |
| DMC weekly operating rate | Thursday 5:00 PM | 61.47% | ↗ |
| PO transesterification process weekly profit | Thursday 5:00 PM | 1197.9 | ↗ |
| Remarks: 1. ↑↓ indicates significant fluctuation, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%; 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow fluctuation, highlighting data with changes within 0–3%. |
Forecast: On the previous working day, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market edged up. Most plants currently have no obvious inventory pressure, providing some bottom-line support for prices. However, with the restart of previously overhauled units and the gradual commissioning of new capacity, market supply is expected to increase gradually later, which will effectively ease the current tight spot supply situation. Affected by this expectation, midstream and downstream purchasing has become more cautious, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Chempricehub Information believes that in the short term, the domestic DMC market will remain stable with an upward bias, and close attention should be paid to changes in each company's units.
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