① Driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and maritime blockades, commodity futures markets surged to new highs.
② Costs for naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride (PA) fluctuated wildly, accelerating volatility in industry profitability.
Table 1: Monthly Price Summary for o-Xylene and Phthalic Anhydride (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region / Type | Current Period | Previous Period | Change Value | Change Rate | Next Period Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| o-Xylene | Jiangsu | 9547 | 8579 | 968 | 11.28% | 9700 |
| Phthalic Anhydride | Jiangsu (o-Xylene process) | 9850 | 9179 | 671 | 7.31% | 9500 |
| Hebei (Naphthalene process) | 9021 | 8003 | 1018 | 12.72% | 8800 |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
In September, domestic phthalic anhydride prices exhibited a trend of rising to a peak followed by a decline, with cost-side and demand-side factors serving as the primary market influencers. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and maritime blockades, supply chain disruption risks increased. International crude oil prices drove up commodity futures, compounded by significant price increases in coal chemical products. Consequently, raw material prices for o-xylene and industrial naphthalene rose sharply, significantly elevating production costs for the phthalic anhydride industry. Cost-driven pressures pushed domestic phthalic anhydride prices higher. However, toward the end of the month, expectations of easing geopolitical tensions led to corrections in crude oil and commodity futures prices, intensifying market wait-and-see attitudes. Additionally, pre-holiday inventory clearance within the domestic phthalic anhydride sector triggered negative feedback from demand, causing prices to fall rapidly from their highs. The price gap between supplies from the o-xylene process and the naphthalene process widened again. By month-end, transaction volumes for lower-priced naphthalene-process phthalic anhydride improved, stabilizing the market, while the o-xylene process market continued its gradual downward trend.
① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and maritime blockades drove commodity futures to new highs.
② Wild fluctuations in costs for the naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride industry accelerated profit volatility.
③ The price spread between o-xylene process and naphthalene process phthalic anhydride supplies widened.
Supply tightness for raw material o-xylene may gradually ease. Domestic utilization rates for o-xylene process phthalic anhydride are expected to rise, increasing supply pressure in the South China region, which may become a key constraint on the market. Expected growth in operating rates within the o-xylene process sector will lead to increased supply, with negligible imports, exerting certain downward pressure on the market. Conversely, concentrated maintenance shutdowns for naphthalene process units will result in a clear decline in supply from this sector, likely continuing tight availability of naphthalene process phthalic anhydride. On the demand side, a potential recovery trend may emerge, leading to incremental demand and a widening supply-demand gap. It is projected that domestic phthalic anhydride prices in October will exhibit divergent trends: o-xylene process prices are expected to decline, while naphthalene process supplies may show a rebound and repair trajectory, potentially narrowing the price spread between the two processes.
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