① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through key straits have driven commodity futures markets to record highs.
② Domestic capacity utilization in the ortho-xylene industry remains at a low level.
Table 1: Monthly Price Overview of Ortho-Xylene and Phthalic Anhydride (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | Region / Process Type | Current Period | Previous Period | Change Value | Change Rate | Next Period Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ortho-Xylene | Jiangsu | 9547 | 8579 | 968 | 11.28% | 9700 |
| Phthalic Anhydride | Jiangsu (Ortho-Xylene Process) | 9850 | 9179 | 671 | 7.31% | 9500 |
| Phthalic Anhydride | Hebei (Naphthalene Process) | 9021 | 8003 | 1018 | 12.72% | 8800 |
Data Source: Chempricehub
In September, domestic phthalic anhydride market prices exhibited a pattern of rising to a peak followed by a decline. Cost-side factors and demand-side dynamics were the primary drivers influencing the market. Affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through straits, supply chain interruption risks increased. International crude oil prices drove up commodity futures prices, coinciding with significant price surges in coal chemical products. Consequently, raw material prices for ortho-xylene and industrial naphthalene rose sharply, significantly elevating production costs for the phthalic anhydride industry. This cost-driven factor pushed domestic phthalic anhydride prices higher. However, towards the end of the month, expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to corrections in crude oil and commodity futures prices, intensifying market wait-and-see attitudes. Additionally, early inventory clearance ahead of holidays negatively impacted demand feedback. As a result, domestic phthalic anhydride prices dropped rapidly from their highs. The price gap between naphthalene-process and ortho-xylene-process phthalic anhydride widened again. By the end of the month, trading of lower-priced naphthalene-process phthalic anhydride improved, stabilizing the market, while the ortho-xylene-process phthalic anhydride market continued its gradual downward trend.
① Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and shipping disruptions through key straits have driven commodity futures markets to record highs.
② Domestic capacity utilization in the ortho-xylene industry remains at a low level.
Overall, the main contradictions in the domestic ortho-xylene market in October are likely to concentrate on supply and cost aspects. With maintenance shutdowns nearing completion, the tight supply situation for domestic ortho-xylene will be alleviated to some extent. The weakening of previous supportive factors will exert certain pressure on the market. However, strong support from the upstream aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain costs remains robust, keeping overall market support strong. It is expected that the overall price of domestic ortho-xylene in October will tend to stabilize. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of the ortho-xylene industry is expected to increase significantly in the next period, partially relieving the supply gap. On the demand side, major downstream industries producing phthalic anhydride via the ortho-xylene process are expected to increase their operating rates due to improved ortho-xylene supply. Additionally, anticipated increases in exports will contribute to growth on the demand side.
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