Introduction: Recently, the domestic DBP market price center surged strongly and maintained high-level operation. This was primarily driven by high-cost support, compounded by tight supply, creating a dual supportive environment.
Following the National Day holiday, the domestic DBP market experienced another consecutive strong rally. The prices of raw materials—n-butanol and naphthalene-based phthalic anhydride (PA)—continued to rise significantly, resulting in high costs and evident cost pressure on enterprises, which pushed the market price center upward. Meanwhile, the overall operating rate in the DBP industry remained low, with multiple production units still undergoing shutdown maintenance. This led to tight supply in the market. The resonance of rising costs and shrinking supply supported the continuous increase in DBP market prices. On the demand side, downstream industries mainly followed a procurement strategy of meeting rigid demand and restocking at lower levels. However, as DBP prices climbed, initial market willingness to accept goods increased, leading to more inquiries and transactions. Subsequently, as DBP prices reached highs, resistance to high prices grew, causing transaction volumes to gradually decline.
Table 1: Summary of Domestic DBP Industry Chain Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Region | 2026/9/30 | 2026/10/15 | Change Value | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong | 10150 | 10800 | 650 | 6.40% |
| South China | 9900 | 10450 | 550 | 5.56% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Recently, due to the persistent high price gap between domestic ortho-phthalic anhydride (OPA) and naphthalene-based PA supplies, naphthalene-based PA partially replaced OPA in the domestic market. Inventory of naphthalene-based PA is generally oversold across the industry. Due to its relatively lower price compared to OPA, the domestic naphthalene-based PA market has essentially become the leading driver in each round of market rebounds. Meanwhile, the domestic octanol market saw its price center begin a gradual rebound trend, driven by rising upstream costs. After the holiday, resumption of operations by downstream users stimulated trading recovery. Octanol producers steadily digested inventory, and the overall supply contraction in the industry became prominent. Cost support combined with improved supply-demand dynamics formed dual positives. Under this fundamental support, the octanol market price center maintained high-level operation. Driven by the simultaneous rise of both raw materials, DBP costs continued to climb, pushing DBP prices up consecutively. DBP profits also improved accordingly. As of October 15, the DBP cost in Shandong was approximately 10,118 CNY/ton, with a profit of 682 CNY/ton.
Table 2: Comparison of DBP Cost and Profit (Unit: CNY/ton)
| Product | 2026/9/30 | 2026/10/15 | Change Value | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N-Butanol (Shandong) | 8250 | 8315 | 65 | 0.79% |
| Naphthalene-based PA (Hebei) | 8750 | 9400 | 650 | 7.43% |
| Cost (Shandong) | 9734 | 10118 | 384 | 3.94% |
| Profit (Shandong) | 416 | 682 | 266 | 63.94% |
Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Cost Aspect: Although there are expectations for a decline in the prices of raw materials n-butanol and naphthalene-based PA in the later period, both remain at high levels. The persistent high-cost pressure continues to provide support for their prices.
Supply and Demand Aspect: Regarding downstream demand, new orders from end-users have softened, and resistance to high-priced DBP has increased. It is expected that demand and procurement will remain focused on rigid demand, with cautious operations. Consequently, support for future DBP prices is likely to be weak.
Comprehensive Analysis: In the short term, although upstream raw material prices may decline, they will remain at high levels, continuing to provide strong support for product prices. Downstream demand is gradually weakening, with sluggish follow-up on terminal orders and increasing resistance to high-priced raw materials. On the supply side, units scheduled for maintenance are expected to resume production, leading to a slow release of market supply. However, current producer inventories are low, maintaining a tight supply pattern in the short term. Overall, high costs and phased tight supply constitute dual positive supports, while poor downstream demand makes it difficult to sustain further price increases. Therefore, market prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels with a slightly weak tendency.
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