China acrylonitrile prices jump 7.14% weekly to ~RMB 12,000/ton on propylene costs, with utilization seen below 70%

As October draws to a close, the pace of price increases in China’s domestic acrylonitrile market has accelerated. Spot self-pickup prices in East China have reached approximately RMB 12,000/ton, up by RMB 800/ton from last week, representing a weekly gain of 7.14%. The primary driver behind this rally is rising costs; propylene feedstock prices have also surged rapidly to around RMB 12,000/ton, exacerbating production losses for acrylonitrile manufacturers. Against this backdrop, expectations of reduced supply are materializing more quickly, providing further momentum for price gains.

The factors driving stronger propylene prices include localized supply reductions leading to tight circulation inventory, as well as persistently low stock levels at production facilities, which create conditions conducive to price support and upward movement. Additionally, international crude oil prices remain strong with volatile fluctuations, providing upstream cost support. This week, propylene prices in the Shandong market rose rapidly from RMB 11,000/ton to near RMB 12,000/ton. Calculations show that the raw material cost alone for producing acrylonitrile has reached RMB 13,900/ton, deepening the loss situation. Compared to profit data over the past three years, the current single-product loss for acrylonitrile exceeds RMB 2,000/ton, marking the lowest profitability level in the past three years.

With mounting cost pressures, acrylonitrile suppliers have been pushing prices higher, while localized production cut plans began to take effect this week. Specifically, Sierbang has further reduced operating loads, Kelur plans to operate at half capacity next month, and the restart of Anqing Petrochemical has been delayed. Given the current extent of losses, passive production cuts are expected to continue. Consequently, the industry utilization rate for acrylonitrile is projected to decline gradually from the current level of approximately 72% to below 70%.

Current estimates suggest no significant improvement in demand for acrylonitrile during November and December. However, driven by cost pressures, supply-side reductions are beginning to emerge, which will improve fundamental conditions in the coming period. It is anticipated that propylene prices in the Shandong market will continue to fluctuate strongly at high levels in the short term, with downside limited by low enterprise inventories, localized tight supply, and supportive trends in overseas markets. Therefore, acrylonitrile prices are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in the short term. In the longer term, attention should be paid to potential corrections in feedstock prices and volatility on the supply side.