Can methanol-based VCM production break the cost and carbon deadlock of conventional routes?

Can methanol-based VCM production break the cost and carbon deadlock of conventional routes?
A Chinese-Swiss research team has published a methanol-to-vinyl chloride (MTV) route in JACS, claiming a 38% cost reduction and up to 237% lower carbon footprint when using bio-methanol. The process runs at 650-750°C, far below the 850°C+ required for conventional ethylene-based cracking, using a NaWZr catalyst with tungsten oxide nanoclusters that achieve 75% VCM selectivity. Traditional VCM production relies on either petroleum-based ethylene oxychlorination or coal-based acetylene with mercury catalysts, both energy-intensive and polluting. While MTV is still at the laboratory stage, it offers a potential path away from fossil feedstock dependence. For China, where coal-based acetylene routes dominate in the west, a methanol-based process could leverage existing methanol capacity and reduce mercury pollution. Commercial viability depends on catalyst lifetime, scale-up economics, and methanol price competitiveness against ethylene and calcium carbide.