Introduction: The capacity ceiling has been reached and total quotas are locked. The fluorinated refrigerant sector has moved from a “volume growth” phase to a “price capture” phase—whoever has a larger capacity base, sufficient quota reserves, and smooth export channels will hold the industry’s pricing power.
During 2020–2025, fluorspar and anhydrous hydrogen fluoride maintained moderate growth (+4–5%), while prices of feedstocks such as chloromethanes (dichloromethane and chloroform) and vinyl chloride fell sharply (−9% to −14%). This means that the overall cost side for refrigerants declined—yet refrigerant prices rose sharply over the same period. Among correlations between hydrofluoric acid and various refrigerant grades, R125 (0.72) > R134a (0.64) > R32 (0.49) > R22 (0.48). This ranking reveals “grade differences” in industrial-chain transmission: R32 (0.49) and R22 (0.48): R32 is more affected by quotas and long-term contract prices, and its correlation with feedstock costs has been weakened by the quota system; R22 is more closely related to chloroform and more affected by PTFE. R32 is the grade whose value has been most fully re-rated—from CNY 12,000/t in 2020 to CNY 64,000–66,000/t in August 2026, an increase of about 430%, the highest among all grades. Its core drivers: quota-locked supply + continued growth in air-conditioning demand + exports diverting supply away from the domestic market + long-term contract prices rising quarter by quarter.
As the traditional March–April refrigeration stocking cycle began, downstream air-conditioner manufacturers and cold-chain enterprises gradually started stocking up. Leading enterprises, relying on their quota-based oligopolistic bargaining power, modestly raised long-term contract pricing, and the East China domestic market showed a narrow, stepwise upward trend. However, dragged down by first-half terminal complete-unit production schedules falling short of expectations and elevated channel inventories, overall market trading sentiment remained relatively subdued, and gains in R32, R125, R134a, and R410A were relatively limited. Among subcategories, second-generation refrigerant R22 (ODS) bucked the trend with an independently strong rally, becoming the best-performing grade in the first half. At the start of the year, R22 had ample downside support following years of quota cuts and a prolonged period of low prices; as peak-season concentrated stocking by downstream cold storage and rigid polyurethane foam producers was released, combined with continued contraction in existing industry supply, spot prices staged a sustained recovery rally, with gains significantly exceeding those of mainstream third-generation HFCs. On the export side, freight disruptions had not been fully resolved, overseas purchasing enthusiasm was subdued, and the pace of export price recovery lagged significantly behind the domestic market.
In May–June, domestic traders and repair shop channels began concentrated destocking. Downstream buyers replenished only essential volumes as needed, spot availability tightened, and coupled with leading producers implementing volume-control and price-support strategies, third-quarter forward contract prices successively broke first-half highs. Spot prices followed contracts upward in tandem, the spread between spot and long-term contract prices continued to narrow, and market price linkage strengthened markedly. Overseas, geopolitical freight blockages gradually eased and the international distribution environment stabilized. At the same time, Europe introduced policies to stimulate air-conditioner imports, adding procurement demand for 30,000 air conditioners, which drove a concentrated release of refrigerant restocking orders from overseas manufacturers. Export market trading activity rebounded sharply, and international prices sustained a stepwise rise. As can be seen from the trend chart, export quotations for R32, R134a, R410A, and R125 rose continuously from March, with the extent of recovery far exceeding that in the earlier part of the first half; recovering overseas demand became the core driver pulling international prices higher.
Comments
0