Can green methanol realistically replace coal-based methanol in China's fuel market?

Can green methanol realistically replace coal-based methanol in China's fuel market?
China's ambition to produce 300 million tons of methanol fuel faces a hard energy constraint. Producing one ton of green methanol via electrolysis requires roughly 11,600 kWh of electricity, meaning 100 million tons would consume about 1.16 trillion kWh, roughly one-tenth of national power generation. That is not feasible near-term. A more realistic path is around 20 million tons of green methanol capacity in the medium term, scaling up as renewable power expands. Biomass methanol offers a cheaper alternative: using agricultural straw with a conversion ratio near 0.26, China's 700 million tons of collectible straw could theoretically support over 50 million tons annually. Current biomass methanol plans are only around 4 million tons, leaving substantial headroom. Coal-based methanol remains the backbone for the foreseeable future.