C5 Industry Chain Market Morning Brief

I. Key Focus Areas

1. The market continues to assess the prospects for US-Iran dialogue, with concerns over supply risks slightly easing, leading to a decline in international crude oil prices. NYMEX WTI futures (December contract) closed at $101.79/bbl, down $1.87/bbl (-1.80% WoW); ICE Brent futures (December contract) closed at $108.79/bbl, down $0.76/bbl (-0.69% WoW). China INE crude oil futures (2612 contract) rose by 8.5 yuan to 727.3 yuan/bbl during the day session but fell by 32.5 yuan to 694.8 yuan/bbl during the night session.

2. As of October 20, Japanese naphtha closed at $1,009.39/ton, up $13.89/ton from the previous trading day; Singapore naphtha closed at $107.13/barrel, up $1.42/barrel from the previous trading day.

3. Yesterday, domestic pyrolysis C5 major producers maintained stable prices. Shandong mixed C5 prices remained weak at around 6,800 yuan/ton, although private enterprise pyrolysis C5 prices held relatively firm. Raffinate C5 exerted downward pressure on prices, as deep processing enterprises rely more heavily on the value-added products to support costs. In terms of deep processing, low inventory levels of piperylene monomers and robust downstream demand continued to push prices higher. Resin prices remained temporarily stable with average buying interest, primarily driven by rigid demand procurement.

4. Yesterday, some regional markets for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid saw price declines. The gasoline market experienced poor end-user sentiment, with refineries accumulating inventories. Prices for substitutable products like mixed C5 stopped falling and stabilized. Due to weak terminal market demand, mainstream prices for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid remained stable, with only sporadic declines in certain local markets.

5. Yesterday, domestic piperylene (trans-piperylene) market prices remained temporarily stable. Affected by the decline in residual liquid prices, the China Index continued to edge lower. Tight supply from major producers led to expectations of price increases, prompting some rigid-demand buyers to purchase at lower levels. Mainstream ex-factory prices ranged from 9,200 to 10,300 yuan/ton.

6. Yesterday, the domestic isoprene market remained temporarily stable. Downstream SIS manufacturers faced profit compression, limiting their ability to chase high raw material prices. However, tight isoprene supply persisted, providing support for factories to maintain firm pricing. Mainstream offer/bid prices in the East China market ranged from 14,000 to 14,600 yuan/ton.

7. Yesterday, domestic dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) ex-factory self-pickup prices were between 9,500 and 9,950 yuan/ton. Lower-end contracts and earlier orders remained stable, while auction prices rose to 10,000 yuan/ton. Market supply remained scarce, with most factories having no inventory or maintaining low stock levels. Some downstream rigid demand procurement intentions persisted, coupled with the execution of export orders, supporting a firm market.

8. Yesterday, mainstream prices for road marking paint C5 petroleum resin were between 9,850 and 11,000 yuan/ton. Temporary maintenance shutdowns at some units reduced supply volumes, and continuous losses in non-deep-processing directions heightened producers' intent to raise prices. Negotiated prices saw sporadic increases.

9. Yesterday, mainstream prices for piperylene adhesive C5 petroleum resin were between 11,800 and 13,600 yuan/ton, while cyclohexane-free adhesive C5 petroleum resin prices ranged from 10,500 to 11,200 yuan/ton. Producers focused largely on order fulfillment with limited spot availability. Facing significant cost pressures, prices maintained high-level consolidation.

Core Logic: Pyrolysis C5 temporarily stable; Isoprene stable; Piperylene stable; DCPD rising; C5 petroleum resin operating stably.

II. Price Table

Table 1: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

III. Market Outlook

Domestic pyrolysis C5 prices are expected to remain stable among major producers, with private enterprise prices holding firm. However, Shandong mixed C5 prices are likely to remain weak. Continuous declines in residual liquid prices will drag on deep processing profits. With policy implementations starting in early November, the residual liquid market currently experiences significant volatility. Regarding deep processing, low inventory levels of pentadiene monomers support firm prices, while resin purchasing enthusiasm remains average.

The pyrolysis C5 residual liquid market is expected to face downward pressure. Gasoline refineries have experienced poor sales performance for several days, leading to bearish market expectations. Refinery prices for substitutable products like mixed C5 remain weak. Terminal market demand is sluggish without clear positive drivers. Chempricehub Information anticipates a downward trend for pyrolysis C5 residual liquid prices in the near term.

Overnight crude oil declines provide negative guidance to the market. Yesterday's gasoline production-sales ratio did not exceed 100%, suggesting further shipment challenges today. Amidst poor end-user sentiment, Chempricehub expects mixed C5 prices to trade weakly today.

Isoprene is expected to trend stronger. Overall tight supply continues to support the market, with localized shortages being prominent. However, given the drop in crude oil prices and downstream majors' lack of strength to chase highs, prices are expected to rise steadily.

Piperylene is expected to trend stronger. Factories generally face no inventory pressure, allowing them to maintain firm pricing. However, downstream sectors face cost pressures and weak production-sales enthusiasm, keeping raw material procurement at rigid demand levels. Therefore, piperylene is expected to move steadily higher.

DCPD is expected to maintain a firm trajectory. Short-term spot supply lacks incremental volume, while downstream users maintain usage levels despite high costs due to rigid demand. Under this supply-demand tug-of-war, the high-price trend persists.

For road marking paint C5 petroleum resin, short-term scarcity of producer spot inventory and persistent cost pressures contrast with weak downstream acceptance of high prices, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions and sporadic increases in negotiated prices. For adhesive C5 petroleum resin, transaction volumes remain high, supported strongly by cost factors, keeping negotiated prices firm.

IV. Data Calendar

Table 2: Domestic Pyrolysis C5 Industry Chain Data Overview (Unit: 10,000 Tons)