Downstream Support Continues; Pyrolysis C5 Remains Stable with a Slightly Firm Trend (Oct 8–15, 2026)

1. Market Focus for the Week

① East China mixed C5 prices rose by 5.37%, while Shandong cracked C5 residual liquid prices increased by 0.57%.
② Deep processing pentadiene prices surged, pushing up petroleum resin prices by RMB 100–200 per ton.
③ Supply volumes of cracked C5 saw a slight increase.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

This week (October 8–15, 2026), industrial-grade cracked C5 prices remained stable at approximately RMB 7,300/ton, with private enterprise prices continuing to rebound. As of Thursday, October 15, quoted prices were: North China at RMB 7,300/ton; East China at RMB 7,300/ton; Northeast China at RMB 6,950–7,060/ton; and South China at RMB 7,150–7,300/ton. Some private enterprises raised prices to the range of RMB 7,300–7,600/ton.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD):
Domestic DCPD prices continued their upward trend this period. The primary support for the price increase came from the supply side. Although the apparent consumption of feedstock cracked C5 remained relatively stable, and the performance of the private market was average due to fuel oil impacts, there was no significant increase in supply. Raw material availability for deep processing enterprises remained tight, keeping DCPD production output low. Additionally, temporary shutdowns for maintenance occurred during the week, further reducing spot supply and tightening the market. With high prices and a tight supply-demand balance, downstream demand was limited to rigid needs. By October 15, ex-works DCPD prices ranged from RMB 9,300 to 9,700/ton, stabilizing at the lower end for existing customers and previous orders, while some auction prices approached the RMB 10,000 mark.

Isoprene:
Domestic isoprene prices stabilized and consolidated this period, with factory gate quotes remaining in the range of RMB 9,200–10,300/ton. Overall plant loads were low, and localized temporary maintenance led to a slight decrease in weekly production. Ample long-term contracts and pending delivery orders supported suppliers' firm pricing stance. Downstream demand for resins and curing agents was weak. Rising costs of maleic anhydride pushed up curing agent costs, leading to passive price increases but pressured transaction volumes. Some curing agent plants shut down, resulting in cautious raw material procurement. While supply and inventory levels provided support, weak follow-through from downstream meant the market was driven primarily by rigid demand.

Piperylene:
Domestic piperylene prices consolidated at high levels, with mainstream bid offers stable at RMB 14,000–14,600/ton. Factory inventory and output were prioritized for long-term agreements and previous orders, leaving scarce tradable spot resources in the market, which supported supplier prices. Major downstream product SIS (Styrene-Isoprene-Styrene block copolymer) saw slight price increases, but the industry remained in deficit, weakening the willingness to chase higher piperylene prices. Demand from other downstream sectors was limited, and partial shutdowns in the curing agent industry led to a slight decrease in raw material consumption. Overall, tight supply supported prices, but insufficient downstream ability to chase highs and a slight contraction in demand suppressed further gains. The market trend this week was characterized by sideways consolidation and a wait-and-see attitude.

Cracked C5 Residual Liquid:
The market for cracked C5 residual liquid consolidated sideways with a slight rise in average prices. As of October 15, the national weekly average price index for domestic cracked C5 residual liquid stood at RMB 7,254/ton, an increase of RMB 9/ton from the previous week, representing a gain of 0.12%. Specifically, domestic market prices ranged from RMB 7,230 to 7,615/ton during the week. Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East heightened supply risks and drove up international crude oil prices. However, gasoline markets in Shandong remained weak. Post-holiday, declining gasoline consumption led to sluggish retail sales at gas stations. Prices for similar products like mixed C5 fell consecutively, with trading sentiment shifting from strong to weak within the week. Despite bearish market sentiment, high crude oil prices helped refineries maintain stability and fulfill contracts. Trading activity among traders and downstream factories remained lackluster.

4. Next Week Market Forecast

Cracked C5 prices are expected to remain stable in the next period. Key points to watch include:

1. The restart of Hainan Refining & Chemical will likely boost profits as prices of its main downstream products rise.
2. Demand from non-deep processing directions may see a slight uptick, but overall downstream demand remains weak, suggesting that cracked C5 residual liquid prices will continue to trade on the softer side.
3. In the deep processing sector, pentadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, while petroleum resin prices will remain firm.