I. Key Points
Core Logic: The interplay between supply and demand fundamentals keeps the market in a weak range-bound trend.
II. Price Table
| Product | Region | Sep 18 | Sep 11 | Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene | Shandong Luzhong Delivered | 13,550 | 14,775 | -8.29% |
| Butadiene | Jiangyin Tank Truck Pickup | 13,450 | 14,500 | -7.24% |
| Butadiene | CFR China | 1,600 | 1,600 | 0.00% |
| Crude Oil | ICE Brent | 103.87 | 100.05 | 3.82% |
| BR Rubber | Daqing BR9000 | 15,000 | 15,650 | -4.15% |
| Notes: | ||||
| 1. Units for CFR China are USD/ton; units for crude oil are USD/barrel; all other units are CNY/ton. | ||||
| 2. Prices represent point-in-time values from the two preceding working weeks before this week, not weekly averages. | ||||
| 3. Change rate refers to the week-over-week percentage change. |
III. Data Table
| Data Type | Sep 18 | Sep 11 | Change Rate | Weekly Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sample Inventory | 3.93 | 3.47 | 13.26% | ↗ |
| Production Profit | 5,004 | 5,704.78 | -12.28% | ↘ |
| Weekly Capacity Utilization | 66.11% | 65.49% | 0.62% | ↘ |
| Weekly Output | 10.70 | 10.6 | 0.94% | ↘ |
| 1. Capacity utilization reflects the ratio of actual output to total capacity, indicating production levels. | ||||
| 2. Weekly output represents the total production volume of sample enterprises for the current week. | ||||
| 3. Production profit is calculated based on theoretical margins for the C4 extraction process. |
IV. Market Outlook
In the short term, the restart of domestic plant units has led to a slight increase in output, alleviating the tightness in spot market supplies; however, its guidance effect on market trends remains limited. Downstream demand continues to be weak, with enterprises adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach, thereby reducing their willingness to purchase butadiene. Actual transaction intentions tend toward lower price levels, which may suppress market performance. Nevertheless, considering that high crude oil prices provide cost-side support, the domestic butadiene market is expected to remain in a weak range-bound trend.
V. Data Calendar
| Data Type | Release Date | Previous Period Data | Current Period Trend Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Butadiene Port Inventory | Wednesday 5:00 PM | 2.37 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Production Profit | Friday 5:00 PM | 5,004.23 | ↘ |
| Butadiene Inventory Analysis | Friday 5:00 PM | 3.93 | ↗ |
| Butadiene Weekly Capacity Utilization | Friday 5:00 PM | 66.11% | ↘ |
| Butadiene Weekly Output | Friday 5:00 PM | 10.70 | ↘ |
| 1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. | |||
| 2. ↗↘ indicates narrow-range fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within 0-3%. |
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