Atmosphere cools down, wait-and-see sentiment deepens (October 9–15, 2026)

1. Key Market Focus This Week

1. October long-term contract pricing for downstream refrigerant industry: Sinochem Taicang at CNY 14,600/ton; Shangyu at CNY 14,500/ton; Juhua at CNY 14,500-14,550/ton; Meilan at CNY 14,800/ton; Dongyue at CNY 14,760/ton.

2. Overall industry capacity utilization and production volume are expected to remain stable this week.

3. Fluorinated refrigerants maintain firm offer prices with negotiated transactions.

2. Weekly Market Analysis

Data Source: Chempricehub

Weekly Price Table for Domestic Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid Market

The sentiment in the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market weakened this week. At the beginning of the week, inquiries and purchases from major downstream enterprises were nearing their end. Although sentiment was initially firm, actual transaction volumes remained limited. On the cost side, the sulfuric acid market has continued to rise recently, with price increases reaching up to CNY 300/ton since self-pricing adjustments, intensifying raw material pressure. Meanwhile, the fluorite market is gradually declining to alleviate costs. On the production side, most manufacturers have maintained high-load operations except for those experiencing production abnormalities. Demand remains generally weak overall. Apart from some spot orders boosting market sentiment, most demand-side enterprises are constrained by sluggish demand, facing difficulties in unloading goods and limited order intake, resulting in digestion capabilities below expectations and inventory levels remaining at medium-to-high ranges. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in East China for October is referenced at CNY 14,500-14,800/ton, while in Shandong it stands at CNY 14,760-15,000/ton.

3. Raw Material Market Analysis:

Weekly Fluorite Market Analysis:

The domestic market for 97% fluorite concentrate weakened and consolidated this week. Inquiry and trading activity declined compared to previous periods. Most demand-side enterprises have completed their phased procurement. In northern markets, existing external supplies and Xinjiang-based sources continue to exert pressure. Traders mostly rely on earlier stockpiling or adopt a "buy-as-needed" approach, while downstream consumption remains strictly driven by essential demand. In southern markets, price movements are squeezed by the sulfuric acid sector. Recently, sulfuric acid prices have risen due to continuous supply contraction. Given that profit margins for hydrogen fluoride are inherently limited, there is significant pressure to lower fluorite prices. Recent transactions averaged CNY 100-150/ton lower than previous levels. With no near-term positive catalysts supporting upward movement, weakening consolidation has become the dominant trend. Current spot delivered prices across various domestic regions are as follows: Inner Mongolia CNY 3,300-3,400/ton; Zhejiang CNY 3,500-3,600/ton; Jiangxi and Fujian CNY 3,700-3,750/ton; Shandong CNY 3,550-3,650/ton; Northwest China CNY 3,400-3,450/ton; Henan and Anhui CNY 3,450-3,500/ton. As of press time, the mainstream delivered price for domestic wet fluorite powder is referenced at CNY 3,300-3,750/ton.

Sulfuric Acid:

The domestic sulfuric acid market continued its divergent performance pattern this week. On the supply side, concentrated maintenance shutdowns at acid plants in Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Zhejiang, and other regions reduced regional supply, providing strong support to local markets. On the demand side, downstream industries primarily engaged in replenishing stocks based on essential needs, with limited willingness for large-scale centralized inventory building. This week, sulfuric acid prices increased in Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan, and Fujian, with hikes ranging from CNY 40 to 260 per ton. Conversely, in the Shandong market, where prices had previously been relatively high, the continuous influx of low-priced goods from surrounding areas disrupted sales rhythms for some producers, leading to downward price trends. Overall, downstream demand has not shown substantial recovery, and market dynamics are largely influenced by supply factors arising from maintenance activities. Trading sentiment remains cautious, and short-term regional divergence is expected to persist. As of now, the ex-factory price for 98% smelter-grade acid in Hubei ranged between CNY 1,250-1,400/ton, representing weekly increases of 8.70%/16.67%. The ex-factory price for 98% ore-acid in Shandong stood at CNY 1,350-1,460/ton, reflecting weekly decreases of 6.90%/4.58%.

R22:

During this period, major East Chinese producers maintained firm offers for both domestic and export R22 refrigerants, keeping the overall market in a state of weak stability. As of press time, mainstream producer offers in East China were referenced at CNY 24,000/ton (unified domestic/export pricing), while general market offers ranged from CNY 21,000-23,000/ton. The transaction center for R22 (feedstock grade) was approximately CNY 12,000/ton. Bulk liquid demand for domestic ODS-grade R22 remained poor, with channel inquiries focusing mainly on small packages. However, shipment volumes dropped significantly, prompting some channels to reduce prices to clear inventory. Under social inventory pressure, the industry operating rate for combined ODS and feedstock-grade R22 stabilized at 68% (down 1 percentage point week-on-week). Regarding terminal markets, usage in South China declined sharply, while Northern China entered its off-season, causing further demand shrinkage. Bearish sentiment dominates among channel participants. Despite holding positions at high levels, traders continue to maintain firm offers while closely monitoring official pricing signals from major producers. In the short term, mainstream factory offers remain firm, operating rates stay low, and the market awaits downstream digestion. Chempricehub forecasts that mainstream factory offers for fluorinated refrigerants in East China will remain firm, with ODS-grade R22 referenced at CNY 24,000/ton.

R32:

During this period, mainstream R32 producers maintained firm offers, controlling output to support prices. As of press time, major East Chinese producers offered R32 at CNY 65,500/ton (unified domestic/export pricing), while general market offers ranged from CNY 63,500-64,500/ton. Seasonal factors have led to softer industry demand, with original equipment manufacturers shipping according to orders. Negotiations for Q4 contracts have seen limited price increases. Additionally, production quotas have been adjusted to reduce output, controlling spot supply volumes. During the foreign trade export window, suppliers actively exported to ensure quota fulfillment. Statistics show that the R32 industry operating rate stabilized at 48% (up 4 percentage points week-on-week), indicating that balancing limited demand space is currently preferable to high operating rates leading to inventory accumulation. Market reports suggest that supported by firm official offers for R32 and R125, the price range for blended R410A refrigerant remains high and stable, though channels are quietly selling off inventory at slightly lower prices. Chempricehub forecasts ex-factory offers for R32 at CNY 65,500/ton (unified domestic/export pricing) and for R410A at CNY 59,500/ton.

5. Next Week's Market Forecast

Based on the above analysis, current market sentiment has cooled. However, the sulfuric acid market continues to operate at high levels. Industry participants are increasingly watching the resumption status of major northern plants, anticipating potential demand improvements alongside deepening bearish sentiment. Chempricehub forecasts that the domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market will experience range-bound fluctuations next week.