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Analysis of Estimated Monthly Data on China's Methanol Imports and Exports (October 2025)

Published on 2025-11-04
  1. Import and Export Data Overview

Data source: Customs, Chempricehub

In October 2025, actual discharge from foreign vessels for China’s methanol imports totaled 1.5474 million tons (counted upon berthing), an increase of 120,500 tons, or 8.45%, from the previous month’s customs data of 1.4269 million tons.

Data source: Customs, Chempricehub

China’s methanol exports in October 2025 are estimated at approximately 20,000 tons, down about 2,300 tons, or 12.99%, from the previous month’s customs data (17,700 tons).

  1. Influencing Factors

Imports: Foreign vessel discharge in October continued to fall short of expectations, mainly due to multiple factors including sanctions, weather, and the imposition of special port dues.

Exports: Contract allocation by USD-denominated traders, unrelated to regional price spreads.

  1. Import/Export Structure

China’s Methanol Import Volume by Trading Partner, Monthly Estimate from Foreign Vessel Data (October)

Trading Partner Volume (tons) Share of Imports
Middle East 1,057,194 68.32%
Malaysia 99,800 6.45%
Oman 73,000 4.72%
Saudi Arabia 60,756 3.93%
Chile 60,600 3.92%
New Zealand 60,200 3.89%
Venezuela 58,000 3.75%
Trinidad 44,280 2.86%
Russia 33,600 2.17%
Total 1,547,430 100.00%

Data source: Chempricehub

  1. Trend Forecast

In October, methanol imports discharged from vessel cargo totaled 1.5474 million tons (counted upon berthing). Discharge continued to underperform expectations, with a substantial volume still deferred to the following month. Of this, the main Middle East region contributed 1.0572 million tons of discharge, while non-Iranian cargo accounted for 490,300 tons. According to the latest tracking, total loadings from the main Middle East region in October amounted to 977,000 tons, and an additional 112,000 tons had been loaded and shipped out by early November. As a result, the current November methanol import estimate has been revised to between 1.50 million and 1.60 million tons, of which 800,000 to 900,000 tons is assessed for discharge from the main Middle East region (subject to actual discharge conditions; actual in-transit cargo is larger), and 694,700 tons from non-Iranian cargo. (Due to multiple port-related factors, vessel arrival times may change; actual port arrivals are subject to final terminal receipts.)

Comments

0
  • Daniel Foster 2026-09-08 10:46
    October arrivals missed again on sanctions and port delays, but Middle East supply still holds upstream margin. I’d watch downstream demand before assuming November's 1.5–1.6 Mt estimate supports capacity utilization...
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