Analysis of the Decline in Methanol Futures Prices Amid Weakening Crude Oil

Chempricehub, November 13:

Market expectations of increased constraints on U.S. military actions against Iran have led to a weakening in crude oil prices, thereby driving down valuations across the entire energy and chemicals sector. The previous significant rally in methanol was primarily driven by bets on navigation risks through the Strait; once this expectation was disproven, futures saw concentrated long position unwinding and a rapid decline (on November 10, the main methanol contract fell more than 6% during intraday trading). Institutions widely noted that while these expectations are already priced in, shipping lanes and vessel schedules remain subject to potential reversals at any time, constituting a high-frequency risk factor.