Acetic acid outlook mixed as methanol spot rises slightly but futures close lower

1. Key Points of the Day

① Yulin Yankuang’s methanol auction today started at 3,260 CNY/ton for a volume of 5,000 tons; it was fully sold out at a final price range of 3,300–3,305 CNY/ton.

② Inner Mongolia Rongxin’s methanol auction today started at 3,250 CNY/ton for a volume of 5,000 tons; it was fully sold out at a final price of 3,270 CNY/ton.

2. Market Trends and Outlook

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Methanol and Related Product Prices (Unit: CNY/ton)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

【Daily Commentary】Today's domestic methanol spot price index stood at 3,490.58, an increase of 8.11 points. Specifically, the spot price in Taicang was 3,860 (-38), and the price on the Inner Mongolia Northern Line was 3,312.5 (+7.5). According to Chempricehub monitoring across 20 major cities, six cities saw varying degrees of price increases, ranging from 7.5 to 100 CNY/ton. Recently, the domestic methanol market has shown distinct regional divergence, with inland markets generally outperforming port markets. Intraday futures fluctuated within a narrow range, with near-term contracts following demand as needed. Overall trading activity was moderate, and the basis weakened. The inland market remained relatively resilient against declines. Currently, upstream inventory levels are low, supported by rigid demand from traditional downstream sectors and increased external procurement by olefin plants in production areas, leading to strong performance in auctions by enterprises in multiple regions. In the short term, markets are expected to adjust differentially based on their own supply and demand dynamics. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macroeconomic factors on commodity market fluctuations.

3. Basis

Afternoon methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) experienced stagnant oscillation. During the day, the MA2701 contract opened at 3,472 CNY/ton, reached a high of 3,488 CNY/ton and a low of 3,319 CNY/ton, and closed at 3,402 CNY/ton, down 45 CNY/ton from the previous session's settlement price. As of the close, the open interest for the MA2701 contract was 907,800 lots, a decrease of 7,800 lots from the previous session.

4. Production Dynamics

Table 2: Summary of Production Dynamics for Methanol and Downstream Products

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

5. Price Forecast

6. Recently, the domestic methanol market has exhibited clear regional differentiation, with inland markets generally stronger than port markets. Intraday futures traded in a narrow range, with near-term contracts moving according to actual demand. Overall trading sentiment was average, and the basis trended weaker. The inland market remained relatively resistant to price drops. Current upstream inventories are generally low, boosted by rigid demand from traditional downstream sectors and increased external procurement by some olefin plants in production areas, resulting in robust participation in enterprise auctions across various regions. In the short term, markets are expected to undergo differential adjustments based on local supply and demand conditions. Investors should closely monitor the disruptive impact of macroeconomic factors on commodity markets.

7. In the medium to long term, supply in the inland methanol spot market remains relatively loose, while spot supply in coastal regions continues to be tight. This dynamic supports methanol prices at elevated volatile levels. Key variables to watch include the commissioning schedules of new units and the arrival status of imported volumes.

8. Market Sentiment

Table 3: Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Methanol Upstream and Downstream Participants

Data Source: Chempricehub Information

7. Related Products Overview

Glacial Acetic Acid: Today, the market price for glacial acetic acid continued to decline. Factory prices were adjusted downward, and traders' offers fell accordingly. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was moderate, primarily focusing on buying dips. Chempricehub expects the glacial acetic acid market to continue trending lower in the short term.

Formaldehyde: Today, the formaldehyde market center shifted downward. Costs found support from rising feedstock methanol prices. However, environmental controls in multiple regions pressured shipments, forcing factories in various areas to passively cut prices to move inventory. Demand from downstream wood-based panel manufacturers was weak, and transactions were sluggish. Chempricehub expects the formaldehyde market to fluctuate at low levels in the short term.

Dimethyl Ether (DME): Today, the DME market remained stable. Although costs rose slightly, holders of DME stocks were minimally affected. Market participants mostly maintained steady pricing and sold orderly based on available inventory. Downstream willingness to purchase was flat, maintaining demand-based procurement. Chempricehub expects the DME market to trade sideways in the short term.

8. Data Calendar

Table 4: Schedule of Domestic Methanol Data Releases (Unit: 10,000 tons unless specified)

Data Source: Chempricehub Information
Notes:

1. ↓↑ indicates significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%.
2. ↗↘ indicates minor fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes between 0-3%.